Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values
Policy makers must base their decisions on preliminary and partially revised data of varying reliability. Realistic modeling of data revisions is required to guide decision makers in their assessment of current and future conditions. This paper provides a new framework with which to model data revisions. Recent empirical work suggests that measurement errors typically have much more complex dynamics than existing models of data revisions allow. This paper describes a state-space model that allows for richer dynamics in these measurement errors, including the noise, news and spillover effects documented in this literature. We also show how to relax the common assumption that "true" values are observed after a few revisions. The result is a unified and flexible framework that allows for more realistic data revision properties, and allows the use of standard methods for optimal real-time estimation of trends and cycles. We illustrate the application of this framework with real-time data on US real output growth.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001.
"Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
- Boschen, John F. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1982.
"Tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 309-333.
- John F. Boschen & Herschel I. Grossman, 1981. "Tests of Equilibrium Macroeconomics Using Contemporaneous Monetary Data," NBER Working Papers 0558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001.
"Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
- Tom Doan, . "SEASONALDLM: RATS procedure to create the matrices for the seasonal component of a DLM," Statistical Software Components RTS00251, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields & Tony Garratt, 2005.
"Real time Representations of the Output Gap,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005
26, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
- Patterson, K D & Heravi, S M, 1992. "Efficient Forecasts or Measurement Errors? Some Evidence for Revisions to United Kingdom GDP Growth Rates," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(3), pages 249-63, September.
- Richard McKenzie, 2006. "Undertaking Revisions and Real-Time Data Analysis using the OECD Main Economic Indicators Original Release Data and Revisions Database," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2006/2, OECD Publishing.
- S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008.
"Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, 03.
- Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
- Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D & Hamilton, James D, 1986. "Estimation of Unobserved Expected Monthly Inflation Using Kalman Filtering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(2), pages 147-60, April.
- Patterson, K. D., 1995. "Forecasting the final vintage of real personal disposable income: A state space approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 395-405, September.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fabio Busetti, 2006.
"Preliminary data and econometric forecasting: an application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 1-23.
- Busetti, Fabio, 2004. "Preliminary Data and Econometric Forecasting: An Application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 4382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knut Anton Mork, 1990. "Forecastable Money-Growth Revisions: A Closer Look at the Data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 593-616, August.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999.
"The reliability of output gap estimates in real time,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Hannan, E J, 1971. "The Identification Problem for Multiple Equation Systems with Moving Average Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 751-65, September.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005.
"News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-19, June.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rosanne Cole, 1969. "Data Errors and Forecasting Accuracy," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 47-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2005.
"UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0502, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Pieter Otter, 1986. "Dynamic structural systems under indirect observation: identifiability and estimation aspects from a system theoretic perspective," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 415-428, September.
- Thomas Laubach, 1997.
"Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies,"
Research Working Paper
97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
- Maravall, Agustin & Pierce, David A, 1986. "The Transmission of Data Noise into Policy Noise in U.S. Monetary Control," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 961-79, July.
- K. D. Patterson, 2002. "Modelling the data measurement process for the index of production," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(2), pages 279-296.
- Rünstler, Gerhard, 2002. "The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 0182, European Central Bank.
- de Jong, Piet, 1987. "Rational Economic Data Revisions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 539-48, October.
- Swanson, N.R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001.
"Are statistical reporting agencies getting it right? Data rationality and business cycle asymmetry,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2001-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Swanson, Norman R. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Are Statistical Reporting Agencies Getting It Right? Data Rationality and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 24-42, January.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
- Patterson, K. D. & Heravi, S. M., 1991. "Are different vintages of data on the components of GDP co-integrated? : Some evidence for the United Kingdom," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 409-413, April.
- Trivellato, Ugo & Rettore, Enrico, 1986. "Preliminary Data Errors and Their Impact on the Forecast Error of Simultaneous-Equations Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(4), pages 445-53, October.
- Hannan, E J, 1976. "The Identification and Parameterization of ARMAX and State Space Forms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(4), pages 713-23, July.
- Patterson, Kerry D & Heravi, Saeed M, 1991. "Data Revisions and the Expenditure Components of GDP," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 887-901, July.
- George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2010. "Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 869-893.
- Patterson, K. D., 1994. "A state space model for reducing the uncertainty associated with preliminary vintages of data with an application to aggregate consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 215-222, November.
- Patterson, Kerry, 2002. "The Data Measurement Process for UK GNP: Stochastic Trends, Long Memory, and Unit Roots," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 245-64, July.
- Howrey, E Philip, 1984. "Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 386-93, August.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2009.
"VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 181-190, July.
- N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 0501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Patterson, K. D., 2000. "Which vintage of data to use when there are multiple vintages of data?: Cointegration, weak exogeneity and common factors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 115-121, November.
- Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 177-197.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:161:y:2011:i:2:p:101-109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.