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Fiscal data revisions in Europe

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  • Pérez, Javier J.
  • de Castro Fernández, Francisco
  • Rodríguez-Vives, Marta

Abstract

Public deficit figures are subject to revisions, as most macroeconomic aggregates are. Nevertheless, in the case of Europe, the latter could be particularly worrisome given the role of fiscal data in the functioning of EU JEL Classification: E01, E21, E24, E31, E5, H60

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez, Javier J. & de Castro Fernández, Francisco & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta, 2011. "Fiscal data revisions in Europe," Working Paper Series 1342, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111342
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Walschot, Mark & Wierts, Peter, 2013. "Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-138.
    2. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Daniel Sotelsek & Guido Zack, 2014. "Some New Results on the Estimation of Structural Budget Balance for Spain," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 210(3), pages 11-31, September.
    3. Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Central bank communication: Managing expectations through the monetary dialogue," Ruhr Economic Papers 692, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
    5. Ozkaya, Ata, 2014. "Creative accounting practices and measurement methods: Evidence from Turkey," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-27.
    6. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    7. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2015. "How Quickly is News Incorporated in Fiscal Forecasts?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2802-2812.
    8. Boumparis, Periklis & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and sovereign credit rating decisions: Panel quantile evidence for the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 39-71.
    9. repec:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:3:p:408-419 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Monetary dialogue 2009–2014: Looking backward, looking forward," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 49(4), pages 204-211, July.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0477 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
    13. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314, April.
    14. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
    15. Afonso, António & Nunes, Ana Sofia, 2015. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 319-326.
    16. Niels Gilbert & Jasper de Jong, 2014. "Does the Stability and Growth Pact induce a bias in the EC's fiscal forecasts," DNB Working Papers 451, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Chang, Andrew C. & Li, Phillip, 2015. "Measurement Error in Macroeconomic Data and Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross Domestic Income," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Niels D. Gilbert & Jasper F.M. Jong, 2017. "Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-32, January.
    19. Carlo D'Ippoliti, 2011. "Introduzione: la crisi economica e della scienza economica," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 64(254), pages 95-104.
    20. Roel Beetsma & Benjamin Bluhm & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2011. "From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-080/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    21. Patrícia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts and Slippages: The Role of the SGP and Domestic Fiscal Frameworks," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 226-253, June.
    22. Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Monetary Dialogue 2009-2014 – Looking Backward, Looking Forward," Ruhr Economic Papers 0477, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    23. Carlo D'Ippoliti, 2011. "Introduction: the crisis of economies and economics," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(257), pages 95-103.
    24. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2017. "When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?," Working Papers 01/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    data revisions; fiscal statistics; news and noise; rationality; real-time data;

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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