Revisions to the Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability
Frequent revisions to GDP and its components cause policymakers to face considerable uncertainty about the current state of the economy. In this paper, we provide stylized facts about the magnitude of revisions to the Czech national accounts. Using data over the 2003–2012 period, we find that the revisions are rather large. Revisions to real GDP growth are on average 1.4 for the annualized quarterly growth rate and 0.7 percentage points for the annual growth rate. Revisions to other variables are even larger: the average size of the revisions ranges from 1 to 12 percentage points for annualized quarterly growth rates and from 0.5 to 4 percentage points for annual growth rates. We investigate whether the revisions could have been predicted using the information available at the time of announcement. We find evidence for in-sample predictability for most of the variables, suggesting that the first releases of these variables are not efficient predictors of the actual values. In a real-time out-of-sample exercise, however, we find that the revisions to real GDP, gross fixed capital formation, and government consumption are not predictable. Only revisions to the GDP deflator can be predicted with substantial gains relative to zero-revisions forecasts.
Volume (Year): 63 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague|
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dean Croushore, 2011.
"Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
- Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2010. "Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 869-893.
- Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001.
"Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Giannone, Domenico & Henry, Jérôme & Lalik, Magdalena & Modugno, Michele, 2010.
"An area-wide real-time database for the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
1145, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michèle Modugno, 2010. "An Area Wide Real Time Data Base for the Euro Area," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-026, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Henry, Jérôme & Lalik, Magdalena & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kugler, Peter & Jordan, Thomas J. & Lenz, Carlos & Savioz, Marcel R., 2005.
"GDP data revisions and forward-looking monetary policy in Switzerland,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 351-372, December.
- Thomas J. Jordan & Peter Kugler & Carlos Lenz & Marcel R. Savioz, 2005. "GDP Data Revisions and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy in Switzerland," Working papers 2005/05, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005.
"News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-19, June.
- S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008.
"Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, 03.
- Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman Swanson, 2000.
"Let's Get "Real" About Using Economic Data,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1004, Econometric Society.
- Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 2001. "Let's Get "Real"" about Using Economic Data"," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-44, CIRANO.
- Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, . "Let's Get "Real" about Using Economic Data," EPRU Working Paper Series 01-15, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:63:y:2013:i:3:p:244-261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.