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Let's Get "Real"" about Using Economic Data"

Author

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  • Peter Christoffersen
  • Eric Ghysels
  • Norman R. Swanson

Abstract

We show that using data which are properly available in real time when assessing the sensitivity of asset prices to economic news leads to different empirical findings that when data availability and timing issues are ignored. We do this by focusing on a particular example, namely Chen, Roll and Ross (1986), and examine whether innovations to economic variables can be viewed as risks that are rewarded in asset markets. Our findings support the view that data uncertainty is sufficiently prevalent to warrant careful use of real-time data when forming real-time news measures, and in general when undertaking empirical financial investigations involving macroeconomic data. Nous démontrons que l'utilisation de données qui sont disponibles en temps réel pour établir la sensibilité des prix d'actifs aux nouvelles économiques mène à des résultats empiriques différents de ceux obtenus lorsque la disponibilité des données et les considérations temporelles ne sont pas prises en compte. Pour ce faire, nous nous concentrons sur un exemple en particulier, c'est-à-dire Chen, Roll et Ross (1986), et nous regardons si les innovations aux variables économiques peuvent être perçues comme étant des risques qui sont récompensés dans les marchés des actifs. Nos résultats entérinent la présomption que l'incertitude des données est suffisamment prévalente pour assurer une utilisation prudente des données en temps réel lors de l'établissement de mesures de nouvelles en temps réel, et en général lorsqu'on entreprend des enquêtes financières empiriques impliquant des données macroéconomiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 2001. "Let's Get "Real"" about Using Economic Data"," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-44, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2001s-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marek RUSNAK, 2013. "Revisions to the Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 244-261, July.
    2. Lamont, Owen A., 2001. "Economic tracking portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 161-184, November.
    3. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    4. Michael Pedersen, 2013. "Extracting GDP signals from the monthly indicator of economic activity: Evidence from Chilean real-time data," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-16.
    5. John Galbraith & Serguei Zernov & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2001. "Conditional Quantiles of Volatility in Equity Index and Foreign Exchange Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-61, CIRANO.
    6. Van Long, Ngo & Shimomura, Koji, 2004. "Relative wealth, status-seeking, and catching-up," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 529-542, April.
    7. Junttila, Juha & Kinnunen, Heli, 2004. "The performance of economic tracking portfolios in an IT-intensive stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 601-623, September.
    8. Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, 2001. "Incentives in Common Agency," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-66, CIRANO.
    9. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    10. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
    11. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2011. "The changing sensitivity of realized portfolio betas to U.S. output growth: An analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 168-186, May.
    12. Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Julie Doonan & Paul Lanoie & Benoit Laplante, 2002. "Environmental Performance of Canadian Pulp and Paper Plants: Why Some Do Well and Others Do Not ?," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-24, CIRANO.
    14. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan M., 2012. "The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 235-249.
    15. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
    16. Christodoulakis, George & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2013. "Behavioural asymmetries in the G7 foreign exchange market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 261-270.
    17. Richard Lajeunesse & Paul Lanoie & Michel Patry, 2001. "Environmental Regulation and Productivity: New Findings on the Porter Analysis," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-53, CIRANO.
    18. Padrón, Yaiza García & Boza, Juan García, 2006. "Which are the Risk Factors in the Pricing of Personal Pension in Spain?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 60(2), November.
    19. Vrugt, Evert B., 2009. "U.S. and Japanese macroeconomic news and stock market volatility in Asia-Pacific," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 611-627, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; expectations; news; data revision process; Efficacité des marchés; attentes; nouvelles; processus de révision des données;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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