Extracting GDP Signals From the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity: Evidence From Chilean Real-Time Data
With real-time data it is analyzed what information Chile’s monthly indicator of economic activity (IMACEC) contains about the final GDP, defined as the growth rate that has been subject to at least two annual revisions. Data are presented and revisions briefly analyzed. It is argued that when three months of IMACEC data are available, it is possible to extract signals about the final GDP, which are as reliable as those contained in the first release of the growth rate. This result is obtained with the evaluation in-sample as well as out-of-sample. It is then investigated how much extra information IMACEC data provide of the final GDP compared to what is already present in historical data. The in-sample analysis indicates statistically significant improvements when more IMACEC data of the quarter are available. Measured by the root mean square nowcast error (RMSNE) the out-of-sample performance also improves as more monthly data are published, although when only the first IMACEC data of the quarter are available, this is not statistically significant.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005.
"News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-19, June.
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003.
"The quest for prosperity without inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
- Cath Sleeman, 2006. "Analysis of revisions to quarterly GDP - a real-time database," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 44p., March.
- Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, .
"Let's Get "Real" about Using Economic Data,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
01-15, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 2001. "Let's Get "Real"" about Using Economic Data"," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-44, CIRANO.
- Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman Swanson, 2000. "Let's Get "Real" About Using Economic Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1004, Econometric Society.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001.
"Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment,"
NBER Working Papers
8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001.
"Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002.
"Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
- John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-20.
- Rómulo A. Chumacero & Francisco A. Gallego, 2001.
"Trends and Cycles in Real-Time,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
130, Central Bank of Chile.
- Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules based on real-time data,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999.
"A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?,"
99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.