IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chb/bcchwp/595.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Extracting GDP Signals From the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity: Evidence From Chilean Real-Time Data

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Pedersen

Abstract

With real-time data it is analyzed what information Chile’s monthly indicator of economic activity (IMACEC) contains about the final GDP, defined as the growth rate that has been subject to at least two annual revisions. Data are presented and revisions briefly analyzed. It is argued that when three months of IMACEC data are available, it is possible to extract signals about the final GDP, which are as reliable as those contained in the first release of the growth rate. This result is obtained with the evaluation in-sample as well as out-of-sample. It is then investigated how much extra information IMACEC data provide of the final GDP compared to what is already present in historical data. The in-sample analysis indicates statistically significant improvements when more IMACEC data of the quarter are available. Measured by the root mean square nowcast error (RMSNE) the out-of-sample performance also improves as more monthly data are published, although when only the first IMACEC data of the quarter are available, this is not statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Pedersen, 2010. "Extracting GDP Signals From the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity: Evidence From Chilean Real-Time Data," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 595, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:595
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc595.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    2. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    3. Cath Sleeman, 2006. "Analysis of revisions to quarterly GDP - a real-time database," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-44., March.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
    7. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
    8. Christoffersen, Peter & Ghysels, Eric & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "Let's get "real" about using economic data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-360, August.
    9. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
    10. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-20.
    11. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    14. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
    15. Rómulo A.Chumacero & Francisco A.Gallego, 2002. "Trends and cycles in real-time," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 211-229, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
    2. Pedersen, Michael, 2015. "What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1043-1055.
    3. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Pablo Pincheira, 2010. "A Real Time Evaluation of the Central Bank of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 37-73, January-J.
    5. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Michael Pedersen, 2013. "What Affects the Predictions of Private Forecasters? The Role of Central Bank Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 686, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C89 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.