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Analysis of revisions to quarterly GDP - a real-time database

  • Cath Sleeman

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Registered author(s):

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the key data series used by the Reserve Bank to inform monetary policy decisions. The measures of GDP, published by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ), are estimates rather than exact figures and may be revised in subsequent releases. Analysis of the most recent measures of GDP should incorporate the extent of uncertainty that surrounds these estimates. To enable a more detailed examination of revision patterns, the Reserve Bank has constructed a real-time database containing each quarterly release of Expenditure GDP (GDP(E)) and its components. The database is available to users on the Reserve Bank's website and will be regularly updated. This article provides an introduction to the database and, by way of example, presents a basic analysis of the revisions made to GDP(E) and its components.

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    Article provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its journal Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 69 (2006)
    Issue (Month): (March)
    Pages: 44p.

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    Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:march2006:4
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    1. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2006. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Shaun Vahey & Tony Garratt, 2005. "UK Real-time Macro Data Characteristics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 253, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. David E. Runkle, 1998. "Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-12.
    6. Carol S. Carson & Lucie Laliberté, 2002. "Assessing Accuracy and Reliability: A Note Basedon Approaches Used in National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics," IMF Working Papers 02/24, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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