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Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information

We forecast economic growth in New Zealand using yield curve data within simple statistical models; i.e. typical OLS relationships that have been well-established for other countries, and related VAR specifcations. We find that the yield curve data has significant forecasting power in absolute terms and performs well relative to various benchmarks. Specifications including measures of the yield curve slope produce the best forecasts overall. Our results also highlight the benefits of fully exploiting the timeliness of yield curve information (i.e it is always available and up to date).

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2009/18.

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Length: 39 p
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2009/18
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  11. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
  12. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  17. Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
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  20. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
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  23. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
  24. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
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  27. Rossi, Barbara & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2005. "How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Outpot Growth?," Working Papers 05-08, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  28. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2006. "A Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 236, Society for Computational Economics.
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