A Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve
This paper analyzes the implications of the standard monetary policy rules, embedded in a New-Keynesian structural macro-model, for the term structure of interest rates. We extend the standard New-Keynesian framework with unobservable factors representing the output-neutral real interest rate and the long-run inflation target of the central bank. Asymmetric information is assumed with respect of the inflation target, implying private sector learning with respect to the inflation target. In our baseline model, we guarantee consistency between the pricing kernel proposed in the macro model and the one implied by the term structure specification. We, however, also study cases in which this condition is relaxed, implying time-varying prices of risk. The results show the importance of the inflation target in explaining movements at the long end of the yield curve. Finally, the fit of the term structure is comparable to the one obtained making use of standard latent factor models.
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