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How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Outpot Growth?

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  • Rossi, Barbara
  • Giacomini, Raffaella

Abstract

We provide an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of the U.S. yield curve for U.S. GDP growth by using a new test for forecast breakdown as well as a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample testing procedures. Empirical research over the past decades uncovered a strong predictive relationship between the yield curve and output growth. However, the parameter estimates that describe this empirical relationship were not stable over time. We document the existence of a forecast breakdown in this relationship over the past three decades, and find it relevant especially in the seventies and eighties. We also provide empirical support for the theoretical conjecture that the cause of the forecast failure is closely linked to changes in the monetary policy of the Fed.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossi, Barbara & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2005. "How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Outpot Growth?," Working Papers 05-08, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:05-08
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    1. Brock, William & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2002. "Optimal Ecosystem Management when Species Compete for Limiting Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 189-220, September.
    2. Tu, Pierre N. V. & Wilman, Elizabeth A., 1992. "A generalized predator- prey model: Uncertainty and management," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 123-138, September.
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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