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Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data

  • Schumacher, Christian
  • Breitung, Jörg

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4SMF27N-1/2/c2ebf90ea10ed5bc162ab63cc4f16a4d
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 24 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 386-398

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:3:p:386-398
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  1. D’Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability," Working Paper Series 0605, European Central Bank.
  2. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  4. Chevillon, Guillaume & Hendry, David F., 2005. "Non-parametric direct multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 201-218.
  5. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  6. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  7. Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jerome & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Interpolation and backdating with a large information set," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2693-2724, December.
  8. Evans, Martin D.D., 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
  10. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  11. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
  12. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  13. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  14. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
  15. Eric Ghysels & Arthur Sinko & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 53-90.
  16. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  17. Milton Friedman, 1962. "The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie62-1, June.
  18. Campbell, Sean D., 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Predictability, and Uncertainty in the Great Moderation: Evidence From the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 191-200, April.
  19. Kapetanios, G. & Labhard, V. & Price, S., 2007. "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Working Papers 07/15, Department of Economics, City University London.
  20. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Pooling-based data interpolation and backdating," CEPR Discussion Papers 5295, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Stefan Mittnik & Peter A. Zadrozny, 2004. "Forecasting Quarterly German GDP at Monthly Intervals Using Monthly IFO Business Conditions Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 1203, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. Biernacki, Christophe & Celeux, Gilles & Govaert, Gerard, 2003. "Choosing starting values for the EM algorithm for getting the highest likelihood in multivariate Gaussian mixture models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 561-575, January.
  23. Charles L. Evans & Chin Te Liu & Genevieve Pham-Kanter, 2002. "The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 26-43.
  24. Luis C. Nunes, 2005. "Nowcasting quarterly GDP growth in a monthly coincident indicator model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 575-592.
  25. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Stephen Wright & Eduardo L. Salazar, 2005. "An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages F108-F129, 02.
  26. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
  27. Milton Friedman, 1962. "Introduction to "The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series"," NBER Chapters, in: The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series, pages 1-3 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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