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Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work

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  • António Rua
  • Miguel de Carvalho

Abstract

We explore a new approach for nowcasting the output gap based on singular spectrum analysis. Resorting to real-time vintages, a recursive exercise is conducted so to assess the real-time reliability of our approach for nowcasting the US output gap, in comparison with some well-known benchmark models. For our applied setting of interest, the preferred version of our approach consists of a two-channel singular spectrum analysis, where we use a Fisher g test to infer which components, within the standard business cycle range, should be included in the grouping step. We find that singular spectrum analysis provides a reliable assessment of the cyclical position of the economy in real-time, with the two-channel approach outperforming substantially the univariate counterpart.

Suggested Citation

  • António Rua & Miguel de Carvalho, 2014. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," Working Papers w201416, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201416
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bógalo, Juan & Poncela, Pilar & Senra, Eva, 2017. "Automatic Signal Extraction for Stationary and Non-Stationary Time Series by Circulant SSA," MPRA Paper 76023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. António Rua & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2019. "Monthly Forecasting of GDP with Mixed Frequency Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis," Working Papers w201913, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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