IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v38y2011i10p2183-2211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate singular spectrum analysis for forecasting revisions to real-time data

Author

Listed:
  • Kerry Patterson
  • Hossein Hassani
  • Saeed Heravi
  • Anatoly Zhigljavsky

Abstract

Real-time data on national accounts statistics typically undergo an extensive revision process, leading to multiple vintages on the same generic variable. The time between the publication of the initial and final data is a lengthy one and raises the question of how to model and forecast the final vintage of data - an issue that dates from seminal articles by Mankiw et al. [51], Mankiw and Shapiro [52] and Nordhaus [57]. To solve this problem, we develop the non-parametric method of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) for multi-vintage data. MSSA is much more flexible than the standard methods of modelling that involve at least one of the restrictive assumptions of linearity, normality and stationarity. The benefits are illustrated with data on the UK index of industrial production: neither the preliminary vintages nor the competing models are as accurate as the forecasts using MSSA.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerry Patterson & Hossein Hassani & Saeed Heravi & Anatoly Zhigljavsky, 2011. "Multivariate singular spectrum analysis for forecasting revisions to real-time data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 2183-2211.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:38:y:2011:i:10:p:2183-2211 DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2010.545371
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02664763.2010.545371
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. Andersson, 2002. "Monitoring cyclical processes. A non-parametric approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 973-990.
    2. S. Knoth, 2002. "Monitoring the mean and the variance of a stationary process," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 56(1), pages 77-100.
    3. David Bock, 2008. "Aspects on the control of false alarms in statistical surveillance and the impact on the return of financial decision systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 213-227.
    4. Christian Sonesson, 2003. "Evaluations of some Exponentially Weighted Moving Average methods," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1115-1133.
    5. Bersimis, Sotiris & Psarakis, Stelios & Panaretos, John, 2006. "Multivariate Statistical Process Control Charts: An Overview," MPRA Paper 6399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Clare Marshall & Nicky Best & Alex Bottle & Paul Aylin, 2004. "Statistical issues in the prospective monitoring of health outcomes across multiple units," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(3), pages 541-559.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2016. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 58-70.
    2. de Carvalho, Miguel & Rua, António, 2017. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 185-198.
    3. Donya Rahmani & Saeed Heravi & Hossein Hassani & Mansi Ghodsi, 2016. "Forecasting time series with structural breaks with Singular Spectrum Analysis, using a general form of recurrent formula," Papers 1605.02188, arXiv.org.
    4. Moody Chu & Matthew Lin & Liqi Wang, 2014. "A study of singular spectrum analysis with global optimization techniques," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, pages 551-574.
    5. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Kerry Patterson & Fabio Rumler, 2014. "The Predictive Performance of Fundamental Inflation Concepts: An Application to the Euro Area and the United States," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2014-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:38:y:2011:i:10:p:2183-2211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.