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Monthly Forecasting of GDP with Mixed Frequency Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • António Rua
  • Hossein Hassani
  • Emmanuel Sirimal Silva
  • Dimitrios Thomakos

Abstract

The literature on mixed-frequency models is relatively recent and has found applications across economics and finance. The standard application in economics considers the use of (usually) monthly variables (e.g. industrial production) in predicting/fitting quarterly variables (e.g. real GDP). In this paper we propose a Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) based method for mixed frequency interpolation and forecasting, which can be used for any mixed frequency combination. The novelty of the proposed approach rests on the grounds of simplicity within the MSSA framework. We present our method using a combination of monthly and quarterly series and apply MSSA decomposition and reconstruction to obtain monthly estimates and forecasts for the quarterly series. Our empirical application shows that the suggested approach works well, as it offers forecasting improvements on a dataset of eleven developed countries over the last 50 years. The implications for mixed frequency modelling and forecasting, and useful extensions of this method, are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • António Rua & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2019. "Monthly Forecasting of GDP with Mixed Frequency Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis," Working Papers w201913, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201913
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    3. Hossein Hassani & Mohammad Reza Yeganegi & Xu Huang, 2021. "Fusing Nature with Computational Science for Optimal Signal Extraction," Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, January.
    4. Kalantari, Mahdi, 2021. "Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic using optimal singular spectrum analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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