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Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions


  • Tara M. Sinclair

    () (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)


Recent research examining U.S. macroeconomic data suggests that revisions may be much more important than traditionally assumed. This paper extends the analysis to Chinese data, where there has been substantial debate about data quality for some time. The key finding in this paper is that indeed the Chinese macroeconomic data revisions are not well-behaved, but that they are not much different from U.S. macroeconomic data revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2012-09

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sinclair, Tara M. & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H.O., 2010. "Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 28-32, July.
    2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    3. Swanson, Norman R. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Are Statistical Reporting Agencies Getting It Right? Data Rationality and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 24-42, January.
    4. Carsten A. Holz, 2006. "China'S Reform Period Economic Growth: How Reliable Are Angus Maddison'S Estimates? Response To Angus Maddison'S Reply," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(3), pages 471-475, September.
    5. Frederick Joutz & H. O. Stekler, 1998. "Data revisions and forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1011-1016.
    6. Chadwick C. Curtis & Nelson Mark, 2010. "Business Cycles, Consumption and Risk-Sharing: How Different Is China?," NBER Working Papers 16154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    9. Gregory Chow, 2006. "Are Chinese Official Statistics Reliable?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 396-414, June.
    10. Harry X. Wu, 2007. "The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, Winter.
    11. James E. Kennedy, 1990. "An analysis of revisions to the industrial production index," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 109, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Angus Maddison, 2006. "DO OFFICIAL STATISTICS EXAGGERATE CHINA's GDP GROWTH? A REPLY TO CARSTEN HOLZ," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(1), pages 121-126, March.
    13. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201511031430 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2015. "Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Working Paper Series 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    4. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 195-212.
    5. Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.
    6. Baum, Christopher F. & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2015. "What do Chinese macro announcements tell us about the world economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 100-122.

    More about this item


    forecasting; China; Real-Time Data; Data Revisions;

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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