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Tara M. Sinclair

Personal Details

First Name:Tara
Middle Name:M.
Last Name:Sinclair
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:psi150
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]
https://sites.google.com/site/taramsinclair/
Twitter: @tarasinc
Terminal Degree:2005 Department of Economics; Washington University in St. Louis (from RePEc Genealogy)

Affiliation

(94%) Department of Economics
George Washington University

Washington, District of Columbia (United States)
https://economics.columbian.gwu.edu/
RePEc:edi:degwuus (more details at EDIRC)

(1%) Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP)
Elliott School of International Affairs
George Washington University

Washington, District of Columbia (United States)
http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/
RePEc:edi:iigwuus (more details at EDIRC)

(1%) Elliott School of International Affairs
George Washington University

Washington, District of Columbia (United States)
https://elliott.gwu.edu/
RePEc:edi:sigwuus (more details at EDIRC)

(1%) Center for Economic Research
Department of Economics
George Washington University

Washington, District of Columbia (United States)
https://cer.columbian.gwu.edu/
RePEc:edi:cergwus (more details at EDIRC)

(1%) H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
Center for Economic Research
Department of Economics
George Washington University

Washington, District of Columbia (United States)
https://cer.columbian.gwu.edu/research-program-forecasting
RePEc:edi:pfgwuus (more details at EDIRC)

(1%) Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA)
Crawford School of Public Policy
Australian National University

Canberra, Australia
https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/
RePEc:edi:cmanuau (more details at EDIRC)

(1%) Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

Halle, Germany
http://www.iwh-halle.de/
RePEc:edi:iwhhhde (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles

Working papers

  1. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2021. "Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting," Working Papers 2021-007, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  2. Tara M. Sinclair & Zhoudan Xie, 2021. "Sentiment and Uncertainty about Regulation," Working Papers 2021-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  3. Pawel Adrjan & Gabriele Ciminelli & Alexandre Judes & Michael Koelle & Cyrille Schwellnus & Tara Sinclair, 2021. "Will it stay or will it go? Analysing developments in telework during COVID-19 using online job postings data," OECD Productivity Working Papers 30, OECD Publishing.
  4. Tara Sinclair & Martha Gimbel, 2020. "Mismatch in Online Job Search," Working Papers 2020-1, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  5. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19," FHFA Staff Working Papers 20-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
  6. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2020-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  7. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  8. Tara Sinclair & Mariano Mamertino, 2018. "Migration and Online Job Search: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 2018-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  9. Jacob T. Jones & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2018. "A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts," Working Papers 2018-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised May 2019.
  10. Tara Sinclair & Mariano Mamertino, 2016. "Online Job Search and Migration Intentions Across EU Member States," Working Papers 2016-5, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  11. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average," Working Papers 2015-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  12. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-29, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2015. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2015-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  14. Tara M. Sinclair & Jeff Messina & Herman Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  15. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  16. Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition," CAMA Working Papers 2014-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  17. Tara Sinclair & Julia Bersch, 2013. "Statistical Versus Economic Output Gap Measures: Evidence from Mongolia," Working Papers 2013-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  18. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2013-4, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  19. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  20. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "Evaluating A Vector Of The Fed’S Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  21. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Forecasting Data Vintages," Working Papers 2012-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  22. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  23. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  24. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 2011/079, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates," Working Papers 2011-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Dec 2011.
  26. Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers 2010-08, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  27. Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2009-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2010.
  28. Tara M. Sinclair & Dennis W. Jensen & Michael D. Bradley, 2009. "How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2009-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  29. Tara Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid & Edward N. Gamber, 2009. "Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule," Working Papers 2008-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  30. Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts," Working Papers 2008-010, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  31. Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid, 2008. "Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation," Working Papers 2008-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2011.
  32. Tara Sinclair, 2008. "Asymmetry in the Business Model: Revisiting the Friedman Plucking Model," Working Papers 2008-03, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  33. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2006. "Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage," Working Papers 2003-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  34. James Morley & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005. "Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 451, Society for Computational Economics.
  35. William A. Barnett & Ke- Hong Choi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2001. "The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory," Econometrics 0111002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2001.
  36. Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, "undated". "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3911, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  37. Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, "undated". "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2509, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

Articles

  1. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2021. "What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 49-53, January.
  2. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
  3. Jones, Jacob T. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman O., 2020. "A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1478-1487.
  4. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
  5. Mamertino, Mariano & Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 51-53.
  6. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
  7. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2017. "A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 101-115, August.
  8. Morley, James & Panovska, Irina B. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2017. "Testing Stationarity With Unobserved-Components Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 160-182, January.
  9. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015. "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
  10. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2015. "How Well Does “Core” Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 791-815, June.
  11. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015. "Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
  12. Daniel Culbertson & Tara Sinclair, 2014. "The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 34-45.
  13. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1864-1874.
  14. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
  15. Tara M. Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2332-2342.
  16. Mitra, Sinchan & Sinclair, Tara M., 2012. "Output Fluctuations In The G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 396-422, June.
  17. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
  18. Tara Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & L. Kitzinger, 2010. "Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2289-2297.
  19. Sinclair, Tara M. & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H.O., 2010. "Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 28-32, July.
  20. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2009. "Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 693-696, October.
  21. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
  22. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 529-542, March.
  23. Friedberg Leora & Owyang Michael T & Sinclair Tara M, 2006. "Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-42, August.
  24. Barnett, William A. & Choi, Ki-Hong & Sinclair, Tara M., 2003. "The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(Supplemen), pages 1-6.

More information

Research fields, statistics, top rankings, if available.

Statistics

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Rankings

This author is among the top 5% authors according to these criteria:
  1. Record of graduates

Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 36 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (18) 2014-08-09 2014-10-03 2015-05-09 2015-06-05 2015-11-15 2016-03-06 2016-08-07 2016-08-14 2016-10-16 2018-12-03 2019-08-12 2020-02-17 2020-07-13 2020-07-20 2020-07-27 2020-08-10 2021-07-12 2021-08-09. Author is listed
  2. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (17) 2009-06-03 2009-06-03 2009-07-11 2011-09-16 2011-10-09 2012-02-08 2012-03-28 2014-08-09 2014-10-03 2015-05-09 2016-03-06 2016-05-28 2018-12-03 2019-08-12 2020-07-13 2020-07-20 2020-08-10. Author is listed
  3. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (12) 2009-06-03 2009-07-11 2010-10-02 2013-05-24 2013-06-16 2014-10-03 2015-06-05 2015-11-15 2016-08-07 2016-08-14 2016-10-16 2018-12-03. Author is listed
  4. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (9) 2009-06-03 2009-07-11 2010-10-02 2011-09-16 2011-10-09 2012-02-08 2016-08-07 2016-10-16 2018-12-03. Author is listed
  5. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (6) 2005-11-19 2009-06-03 2009-06-03 2012-02-08 2016-05-28 2019-08-12. Author is listed
  6. NEP-LAB: Labour Economics (6) 2015-10-10 2015-10-25 2015-11-01 2020-07-13 2020-07-20 2020-08-10. Author is listed
  7. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (4) 2005-11-19 2012-02-08 2012-03-28 2020-07-20
  8. NEP-ORE: Operations Research (4) 2020-02-17 2020-07-13 2020-07-20 2020-08-10
  9. NEP-BIG: Big Data (2) 2021-07-12 2021-08-09
  10. NEP-LAW: Law & Economics (2) 2021-07-12 2021-08-09
  11. NEP-MIG: Economics of Human Migration (2) 2016-06-04 2018-04-30
  12. NEP-CSE: Economics of Strategic Management (1) 2016-08-07
  13. NEP-CWA: Central & Western Asia (1) 2021-08-09
  14. NEP-EUR: Microeconomic European Issues (1) 2016-06-04
  15. NEP-HPE: History & Philosophy of Economics (1) 2019-08-12
  16. NEP-PAY: Payment Systems & Financial Technology (1) 2018-04-30
  17. NEP-REG: Regulation (1) 2021-08-09
  18. NEP-TRA: Transition Economics (1) 2013-01-19
  19. NEP-URE: Urban & Real Estate Economics (1) 2018-04-30

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