Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts
In this paper we present a multivariate analysis of the Federal Reserveâ€™s forecasts. First, we evaluate the Fedâ€™s forecasts of the ten major expenditure categories of real GDP. Second, we present a new methodology for evaluating multivariate forecasts. Finally, we use the same methodology to determine whether the Fedâ€™s forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment taken together present an accurate overall view of the economic situation and compare the Fedâ€™s forecasts to those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find that the Fedâ€™s forecasts were generally consistent with the overall conditions that actually occurred. We also find that the Fedâ€™s forecasts and those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters are quite similar overall.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/|
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