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What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?

Listed author(s):
  • Tara M. Sinclair

    ()

    (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

  • Jeff Messina

    (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

  • Herman Stekler

    ()

    (Department of Economics, George Washington University)

Although there have been many evaluations of the Fed Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the context of fixed event predictions to determine how new information is incorporated in the forecasting process. This analysis permits us to determine whether there was an underutilization of information. There is no evidence of forecast smoothing, but rather that the revisions were sometimes in the wrong direction.

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File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/2014WP/SinclairIIEPWP201414.pdf
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Paper provided by The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy in its series Working Papers with number 2014-14.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 2014
Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2014-14
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/
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