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What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Tara M. Sinclair

    () (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

  • Jeff Messina

    (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

  • Herman Stekler

    () (Department of Economics, George Washington University)

Abstract

Although there have been many evaluations of the Fed Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the context of fixed event predictions to determine how new information is incorporated in the forecasting process. This analysis permits us to determine whether there was an underutilization of information. There is no evidence of forecast smoothing, but rather that the revisions were sometimes in the wrong direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Tara M. Sinclair & Jeff Messina & Herman Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2014-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    2. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
    3. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    5. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:760-769 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    7. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal Reserve; Forecast Evaluation; Forecast Revisions;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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