How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively
Eight times a year, approximately two weeks before every FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic conditions in the twelve Federal Reserve districts. Called the Beige Book, this description relies primarily on surveys and anecdotal evidence gathered by the twelve district banks. For this paper, we read and numerically scored past Beige Books in order to determine the extent to which the descriptions in these books accurately reflect current economic activity as measured by quarterly real GDP growth. We find that both in-sample and out-of-sample, the quantitative Beige Book indices do have significant predictive content for current and next quarter real GDP growth. Furthermore, the Beige Book has information about current quarter real GDP growth not present in other indicators such as the Blue Chip Consensus Forecast or time series models that use real-time data.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Biddle, Jeff E & Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1998.
"Beauty, Productivity, and Discrimination: Lawyers' Looks and Lucre,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 172-201, January.
- Jeff E. Biddle & Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1995. "Beauty, Productivity and Discrimination: Lawyers' Looks and Lucre," NBER Working Papers 5366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bharat Trehan, 1989. "Forecasting growth in current quarter real GNP," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 39-52.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989.
"Scoring the Leading Indicators,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July.
- Hamermesh, Daniel S & Biddle, Jeff E, 1994.
"Beauty and the Labor Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1174-94, December.
- Havrilesky, Thomas, 1991. "The Frequency of Monetary Policy Signaling from the Administration to the Federal Reserve: Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 423-28, August.
- Havrilesky, Thomas, 1990. "The Influence of the Federal Advisory Council on Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 37-50, February.
- Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas, 1997. "Real-time GDP Growth Forecasts," Working Papers 9710, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Bharat Trehan, 1992. "Predicting contemporaneous output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:34:y:2002:i:1:p:114-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.