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Estimation of Current-Quarter Gross National Product by Pooling Preliminary Labor-Market Data

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  • Braun, Steven N

Abstract

Two methods of using labor-market data as indicators of contemporaneous gross national product (GNP) are developed. The establishment survey data are used by inverting a partial-adjustment equation for hours. A second GNP forecast can be extracted from the household survey by using Okun's law. Using preliminary rather than final data adds about .2 to .4 percentage points to the expected value of the root mean squared errors and changes the weights that the pooling procedures assigns to the two forecasts. The use of preliminary rather than final data results in a procedure that assigns more importance to the Okun's-law forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Braun, Steven N, 1990. "Estimation of Current-Quarter Gross National Product by Pooling Preliminary Labor-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 293-304, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:8:y:1990:i:3:p:293-304
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    Cited by:

    1. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, August.
    2. Kiley, Michael T., 2015. "What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Murphy, Kevin J. & Payne, James E., 2003. "Explaining change in the natural rate of unemployment: A regional approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 345-368.
    4. Vadim Khramov & John Ridings Lee, 2013. "The Economic Performance Index (EPI); an Intuitive Indicator for Assessing a Country's Economic Performance Dynamics in an Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 13/214, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    6. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    7. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    9. Roberts John M., 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-32, July.
    10. CHARLES T. Carlstrom & WILLIAM T. Gavin, 1993. "Zero Inflation: Transition Costs And Shoe Leather Benefits," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(1), pages 9-17, January.
    11. Pecchenino, R. A. & Rasche, Robert H., 1990. "P* type models: Evaluation and forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 421-440, October.
    12. Mark W. French, 1997. "Cleaning up the errors in the monthly "Employment situation" report: a multivariate state-space approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005. "An overview of some historical brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 592, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finan├žas, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    14. Tom Stark, 2000. "Does current-quarter information improve quarterly forecasts for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1992. "Monetary policy with uncertain estimates of potential output," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 2-15.

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