Forecast Revisions of Mexican Inflation and GDP Growth
We analyze forecasts of inflation and GDP growth contained in Banco de México's Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1995-2009. The forecasts are for the current and the following year, comprising an unbalanced three-dimensional panel with multiple individual forecasters, target years, and forecast horizons. The fixed-event nature of the forecasts enables us to examine efficiency by looking at the revision process. The panel structure allows us to control for aggregate shocks and to construct a measure of the news that impacted expectations in the period under study. The results suggest that respondents seem to rely for longer than appears to be optimal on their previous forecasts, and that they do not seem to use past information in an efficient manner. In turn, this means there are areas of opportunity to improve the accuracy of the forecasts, for instance, by taking into account the positive autocorrelation found in forecast revisions.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006.
"How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725.
- Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal & Loungani, Prakash, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," MPRA Paper 22065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
- Kajal Lahiri & Antony Davies & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts," Discussion Papers 10-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Clive W.J. Granger, 1999. "Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-173.
- CapistrÃ¡n, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009.
"Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
- Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecast Combination with Entry and Exit of Experts," Working Papers 2006-08, Banco de México.
- Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers 2008-55, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- PÂRTACHI Ion & HANCU Lilian & ENACHI Stella, 2009. "Statistical approaches of the credit and the banking rating in the national economy," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(2), pages 114-121, December.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S37-S55.
- Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010.
"A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
- Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio E. Noriega, 2007. "Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience," Working Papers 2007-01, Banco de México.
- Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2008. "Here is the News: Forecast Revisions in the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 203(1), pages 68-77, January.
- Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
- Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997.
"Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
- Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Measuring Predictability: Theory And Macroeconomic Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 2424, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Working Papers 97-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, . "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," CARESS Working Papres 97-19, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," Working Papers 98-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Swidler, Steve & Ketcher, David, 1990. "Economic Forecasts, Rationality, and the Processing of New Information over Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 65-76, February.
- Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007.
"How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
- Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2006. "How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence From Cross-country Surveys," Discussion Papers 06-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
- Allan Timmermann & Andrew Patton, 2004.
"Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity,"
wp04-05, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.
- Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2008.
"Are They Really Rational? Assessing Professional Macro-Economic Forecasts from the G7-Countries,"
Kiel Working Papers
1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2008. "Are they really rational? : Assessing professional macro-economic forecasts from the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- H. Bakhshi & G. Kapetanios & T. Yates, 2005.
"Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation,"
Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 539-553, October.
- Hasan Bakhshi & George Kapetanios & Anthony Yates, 2003. "Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: an application to UK inflation," Bank of England working papers 176, Bank of England.
- Bentancor, Andrea & Pincheira, Pablo, 2010. "Predicción de errores de proyección de inflación en Chile," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(305), pages 129-154, enero-mar.
- Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & White, Halbert, 1998. "Consistent Specification Testing With Nuisance Parameters Present Only Under The Alternative," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 295-325, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2010-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dirección de Sistemas)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.