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Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience

  • Manuel Ramos Francia
  • Daniel Chiquiar
  • Antonio E. Noriega

When monetary policy has an explicit inflation target, observed inflation should be a stationary process. In countries where, for a variety of reasons, the determinants of inflation could lead it to follow a non-stationary process, the adoption of an inflation targeting framework should therefore induce a fundamental change in the stochastic process governing inflation. This paper studies the time series properties of Mexican inflation during 1995-2006, using recently developed techniques to detect a change in the persistence of economic time series. Consistent with the adoption of an inflation-targeting framework, the results suggest that inflation in Mexico seems to have switched from a nonstationary to a stationary process around the end of year 2000 or the beginning of 2001.

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File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7BCA5FFC8D-2EDB-9BF3-92EF-3CF0F6C00436%7D.pdf
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Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2007-01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2007-01
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  1. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
  2. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
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  5. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Latin America," Working Papers 2006-11, Banco de México.
  6. Musy, Olivier, 2006. "Inflation persistence and the real costs of disinflation in staggered prices and partial adjustment models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 50-55, April.
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  8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  9. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
  10. Kim, Jae-Young & Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Amador, Rosa Badillo, 2002. "Corrigendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series" [J. Econom. 95 (2000) 97-116]," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 389-392, August.
  11. Gadea, Maria & Mayoral, Laura, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," MPRA Paper 815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Ignazio Angeloni & Gunter Coenen & Frank Smets, 2003. "Persistence, The Transmission Mechanism And Robust Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 527-549, November.
  13. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060, August.
  14. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  16. Robert Taylor & Stephen Leybourne & David Harvey, 2004. "Modified Tests for a Change in Persistence," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 64, Econometric Society.
  17. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2004. "Inflation persistence and flexible prices," Working Papers 2001-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. Claudio E. V. Borio & Wiliam English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 127, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. Stephen J. Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Regression-based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 595-621, October.
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