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On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world

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  • Antonio E. Noriega
  • Manuel Ramos Francia

Abstract

We study the dynamics of inflation persistence in 45 countries for the period 1960-2008. We use a nonparametric unit root test robust to nonlinearities, error distributions, structural breaks and outliers, many of them typical features of inflation data, and a test for multiple changes in persistence, which decomposes the sample information between adjacent I(0) and I(1) periods. We find that (1) With very few exceptions, inflation around the world rejects a unit root, (2) for several countries there is evidence of significant changes in persistence, (3) bursts and drops in the level of inflation and in inflation persistence tend to coincide, (4) these drops occurred during “the Great Moderation” and during the adoption of inflation targeting. We conclude that inflation is characterized by either a stationary behaviour throughout the sample, or by switches of the type I(0)-I(1)-I(0). For all countries in our sample, any indication of nonstationarity seems to be temporary.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio E. Noriega & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2009-02
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    Cited by:

    1. Geronikolaou, George & Spyromitros, Eleftherios & Tsintzos, Panagiotis, 2016. "Inflation persistence: The path of labor market structural reforms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 317-322.
    2. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Persistence of Inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 66203, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kruse Robinson & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Noriega Antonio E., 2017. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-28, June.
    4. José Julián Sidaoui & Carlos Capistrán & Daniel Chiquiar & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "A Note on the Predictive Content of PPI over CPI Inflation: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2009-14, Banco de México.
    5. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    6. Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2016. "Inflation persistence: revisited," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 25-44.
    7. Carlos Capistrán & Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2011-12, Banco de México.
    8. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Targeting: New Evidence from Fractional Integration and Cointegration," Working papers 2016-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    9. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John, 2012. "Nonstationarity and nonlinearity in inflation rate: Some further evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 224-234.
    10. Garcés Díaz Daniel, 2017. "Explaining Inflation with a Classical Dichotomy Model and Switching Monetary Regimes: Mexico 1932-2013," Working Papers 2017-20, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Multiple persistence change; Stationarity; Unit root tests; Unknown direction of change; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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