IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world

  • Antonio E. Noriega
  • Manuel Ramos Francia

We study the dynamics of inflation persistence in 45 countries for the period 1960-2008. We use a nonparametric unit root test robust to nonlinearities, error distributions, structural breaks and outliers, many of them typical features of inflation data, and a test for multiple changes in persistence, which decomposes the sample information between adjacent I(0) and I(1) periods. We find that (1) With very few exceptions, inflation around the world rejects a unit root, (2) for several countries there is evidence of significant changes in persistence, (3) bursts and drops in the level of inflation and in inflation persistence tend to coincide, (4) these drops occurred during “the Great Moderation” and during the adoption of inflation targeting. We conclude that inflation is characterized by either a stationary behaviour throughout the sample, or by switches of the type I(0)-I(1)-I(0). For all countries in our sample, any indication of nonstationarity seems to be temporary.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7BC0521285-30E1-1548-6CA5-AE22BBF807AF%7D.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2009-02.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2009-02
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.banxico.org.mx

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2009.
  2. Amano, Robert, 2007. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy: A simple result," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 26-31, January.
  3. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
  4. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 87-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 11874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Open Access publications 10197/211, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  7. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre & Zhou, Jing, 2013. "Wald Tests For Detecting Multiple Structural Changes In Persistence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(02), pages 289-323, April.
  8. Stephen J. Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Regression-based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 595-621, October.
  9. Kontonikas, A., 2004. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence from GARCH modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-543, May.
  10. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1193-1224, September.
  12. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Batini, Nicoletta, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 0201, European Central Bank.
  14. Carl E. Walsh & Bharat Trehan, 1988. "Seigniorage and tax smoothing in the United States: 1914-1986," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
  16. Bob Nobay & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in the U.S.: Global but Not Local Mean Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 135-150, 02.
  17. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
  18. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
  19. Kang Kyu Ho & Kim Chang-Jin & Morley James, 2009. "Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, September.
  20. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
  21. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59 Bank for International Settlements.
  22. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares-Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, 05.
  23. Meredith J. Beechey & Par Osterholm, 2007. "The rise and fall of U.S. inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
  25. Coenen, Günter, 2003. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Working Paper Series 0290, European Central Bank.
  26. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
  27. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  28. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
  29. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  30. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Latin America," Working Papers 2006-11, Banco de México.
  31. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
  32. Murray, Christian & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David, 2008. "Inflation Persistence and the Taylor Principle," MPRA Paper 11353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Peter Burridge & Daniela Hristova, 2008. "Consistent estimation and order selection for nonstationary autoregressive processes with stable innovations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 695-718, 07.
  35. Eiji Kurozumi, 2005. "Detection of Structural Change in the Long-run Persistence in a Univariate Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(2), pages 181-206, 04.
  36. Luca Benati, 2005. "U.K. Monetary Regimes and Macroeconomic Stylised Facts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 107, Society for Computational Economics.
  37. Cabrero, Alberto & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Hirsch, Astrid & Nieto, Fernando, 2002. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 0142, European Central Bank.
  38. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  39. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, 09.
  40. Leybourne Stephen & Kim Tae-Hwan & Taylor A.M. Robert, 2007. "Detecting Multiple Changes in Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-34, September.
  41. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation," Working Papers 2008-12, Banco de México.
  42. Noriega, Antonio E. & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2009. "The dynamics of persistence in US inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 168-172, November.
  43. Felipe Aparicio & Alvaro Escribano & Ana E. Sipols, 2006. "Range Unit-Root (RUR) Tests: Robust against Nonlinearities, Error Distributions, Structural Breaks and Outliers," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 545-576, 07.
  44. Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2009-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dirección de Sistemas)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.