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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: Evidence from Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Capistrán
  • Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez
  • Manuel Ramos Francia

Abstract

This paper analyzes the pass-through of exchange rate to different price indexes in Mexico. The analysis is based on a vector autoregressive model (VAR) using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2010. The pass-through effects are calculated by means of accumulated impulse response functions to a recursively identified exchange rate shock. The results show that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is complete, but it declines along the distribution chain in such a way that the impact on consumer prices is below 20 percent. Moreover, we find that the exchange rate pass-through seems to have decreased substantially from 2001 onwards, which coincides with the adoption of an inflation targeting regime by Banco de Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Capistrán & Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2011-12, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2011-12
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tobal Martín, 2017. "Prudential Regulation, Currency Mismatches and Exchange Rates in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working Papers 2017-21, Banco de México.
    2. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
    4. Covarrubias, Enrique & Hernández-del-Valle, Gerardo, 2016. "Inflation expectations derived from a portfolio model," MPRA Paper 69489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "State-dependent exchange rate pass-through behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 170-195.
    6. Garcés Díaz Daniel, 2016. "Changes in Inflation Predictability in Major Latin American Countries," Working Papers 2016-20, Banco de México.
    7. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Borradores de Economia 930, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Juan Hernández, 2015. "Revisión de algunas estimaciones recientes del traspaso del tipo de cambio a los precios en México," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 190-196, Diciembre.
    9. Josué Fernando Cortés Espada, 2013. "An estimation of the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Mexico," Working Papers 2013-02, Banco de México.
    10. Tobal Martín & Yslas Renato, 2016. "Two Models of FX Market Interventions: The Cases of Brazil and Mexico," Working Papers 2016-14, Banco de México.
    11. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Julio Carrillo & Diego Rodríguez & Fernando Perez & Rocío Gondo & Carlos Montoro & Roberto Chang, 2017. "Financial and real shocks and the effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in Latin American countries," BIS Working Papers 668, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2016. "Break-Even-Inflation's Decomposition in Mexico," Working Papers 2016-22, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; import price; consumer price; distribution chain; inflation.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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