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Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions

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  • Jonas Stulz

Abstract

This study investigates the pass-through of exchange rate and import price shocks to different aggregated prices in Switzerland. The baseline analysis is carried out with recursively identified vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The data set comprises monthly observations, and pass-through effects are quantified by means of impulse response functions. Evidence shows that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is substantial (although incomplete), but only moderate to total consumer prices. Moreover, a sub-sample analysis reveals that the pass-through decreased in the 1990s below the levels recorded in previous decades. This decrease was more pronounced for the pass-through to consumer prices than that to import prices, and it coincided with a shift towards lower and more stable consumer price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas Stulz, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions," Economic Studies 2007-04, Swiss National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbecs:2007-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nils Herger, 2012. "Exchange Rates and Import Prices in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(III), pages 381-407, September.
    2. Nils Herger, 2015. "Market Entries and Exits and the Nonlinear Behaviour of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 313-332, April.
    3. Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
    4. Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013. "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Andreas Bachmann, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through to various price indices: empirical estimation using vector error correction models," Diskussionsschriften dp1205, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    6. Juan Hernández, 2015. "Revisión de algunas estimaciones recientes del traspaso del tipo de cambio a los precios en México," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 190-196, December.
    7. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    8. Vugar Rahimov & Nigar Jafarova & Fuad Ganbarov, 2017. "The Exchange Rate Pass-Through to CPI and its components in Oil-Exporting CIS Countries," IHEID Working Papers 06-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    9. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    10. Cyriac Guillaumin & Guillaume Vallet, 2012. "La Suisse et la zone euro : votre monnaie, notre problème ? La possibilité d'un ancrage de jure," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(5), pages 629-655.
    11. Luyinduladio, Menga, 2010. "Degré de répercussion du Taux de change sur l’Inflation en République Démocratique du Congo de 2002 à 2007
      [Pass-Through of Exchange rate to inflation in DRC 2002 to 2007]
      ," MPRA Paper 21970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rita Fleer & Barbara Rudolf & Mathias Zurlinden, 2016. "Price change dispersion and time-varying pass-through to consumer prices," Working Papers 2016-17, Swiss National Bank.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Switzerland; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 11/116, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Herger Nils, 2013. "Market Entries and Exits and the Nonlinear Behaviour of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," Working Papers 13.08, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    15. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2017. "Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time," Discussion Papers 50, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; VAR; consumer prices; import prices;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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