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Time-Varying Pass-Through from Import Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence from an Event Study with Real-Time Data

  • Amstad, Marlene
  • Fischer, Andreas M

This paper analyzes the pass-through from import prices to CPI inflation in real time. Our strategy follows an event-study approach, which compares inflation forecasts before and after import price releases. Inflation forecasts are modelled using a dynamic factor procedure that relies on daily panels of Swiss data. We find strong evidence that monthly import price releases provide important information for CPI inflation forecasts and that the behaviour of updated forecasts is consistent with a time-varying pass-through. The robustness of this latter result is underpinned in two ways: an alternative CPI measure that excludes price components subject to administered pricing and as well as panels capturing different levels of information breadth. Besides implying a time-varying pass-through, our empirical findings cast doubt on a prominent role of sticky prices for the low pass-through findings.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5395.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5395
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  1. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
  2. Sergio Rebelo & Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum, 2004. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," 2004 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 223, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2005. "Shock identification of macroeconomic forecasts based on daily panels," Staff Reports 206, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
  7. Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003. "Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 242, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  9. Dalia Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2001. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices; Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?," IMF Working Papers 01/194, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jeannine Bailliu & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Industrialized Countries," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Spring), pages 19-28.
  11. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4627, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  14. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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