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Are Weekly Inflation Forecasts Informative?

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  • Marlene Amstad
  • Andreas M. Fischer

Abstract

Are weekly inflation forecasts informative? Although several central banks review and discuss monetary policy issues on a bi-weekly basis, there have been no attempts by analysts to construct systematic estimates of core inflation that supports such a decision-making schedule. The timeliness of news releases are recognized to be an important information source in real-time estimation. We incorporate real-time information from macroeconomic releases and revisions into our weekly updates of monthly Swiss core inflation using a common factor procedure. The weekly estimates for Swiss core inflation show that it is worthwhile to update the forecast at least twice a month. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Are Weekly Inflation Forecasts Informative?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 237-252, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:71:y:2009:i:2:p:237-252
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    Cited by:

    1. Amstad, Marlene & Potter, Simon M. & Rich, Robert W., 2014. "The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG," Staff Reports 672, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Ronald Indergand & Stefan Leist, 2014. "A Real-Time Data Set for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(IV), pages 331-352, December.
    3. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    4. Siliverstovs Boriss & Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2012. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 429-444, August.
    5. Marlene Amstad & Ye Huan & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BIS Working Papers 465, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 507-518.
    7. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Real time underlying inflation gauges for monetary policymakers," Staff Reports 420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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