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Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China

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  • Amstad, Marlene
  • Ye, Huan
  • Ma, Guonan

Abstract

Inflation in emerging markets is often driven by large, persistent changes in food and energy prices. Core inflation measures that neglect or under-weight volatile CPI subcomponents such as food and energy risk excluding information helpful in assessing current and future inflation trends. This paper develops an underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China, extracting the persistent part of the common component in a broad dataset of price and non-price variables. Our proposed UIG for China avoids the excess volatility reduction that plagues traditional Chinese core inflation measures. When forecasting headline CPI, the proposed UIG outperforms traditional core inflation measures over a variety of samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Amstad, Marlene & Ye, Huan & Ma, Guonan, 2018. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2018_011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marlene Amstad & Ye Huan & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BIS Working Papers 465, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Sukudhew (Sukhdave) Singh, 2016. "Economic changes, inflation dynamics and policy responses: the Malaysian experience," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 231-245 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. repec:rba:rbabul:dec2017-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2014. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Icelandic Core Inflation," Economics wp67, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    5. The People's Bank of China, 2016. "An underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 117-121 Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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