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Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices

  • Haroon Mumtaz
  • Özlem Oomen
  • Jian Wang

In this paper we estimate the rate of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into UK import prices using disaggregate data at the SITC-2 and SITC-3 digit level. Consistent with earlier studies, we find evidence for significant heterogeneity among the estimated industry-specific pass-through rates. In an environment where cross-sectional heterogeneity is significant the use of aggregate data can be misleading since aggregation may lead to heavily biased ERPT estimates at the economy-wide level. We demonstrate that the aggregation bias caused by this heterogeneity is not negligible for the UK data. Further, we investigate the source of the cross-sectional variation in the estimated industry-specific pass-through rates. For our sample, we find the industry-specific average inflation rates to be significant in explaining this variation. Furthermore, we find evidence for short-run and long-run partial pass-through into food and manufacturing sectors. As for the economy-wide ERPT the conclusion stands, possibly reflecting the relatively large weight of manufacturing goods in UK imports. Finally, we find a significant reduction in estimated ERPT rates since 1995 caused by increased stability of the UK economy over the past decade.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 312.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:312
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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S., 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 7313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. José M. Campa & Linda S. Goldberg & José M. González-Mínguez, 2005. "Exchange rate pass through to import prices in the euro area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0538, Banco de Espa�a.
  12. Stefano Chiarlone, 2000. "Evidence of Product Differentiation and Relative Quality in Italian Trade," KITeS Working Papers 114, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2000.
  13. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
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  27. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
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