IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/111.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies

Author

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of exchange rates and import prices on the domestic producer price index and consumer price index in selected industrialized economies. The empirical model is a vector autoregression incorporating a distribution chain of pricing. When the model is estimated over the post-Bretton Woods era, impulse responses indicate that exchange rates have a modest effect on domestic price inflation while import prices have a stronger effect. Pass-through is larger in countries with a larger import share and more persistent exchange rates and import prices. Over 1996-98, these external factors have had a sizable disinflationary effect in many of the countries, but not in the United States. Estimating the model using post-1982 data has little effect on these conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:111
    Note: For a published version of this report, see Jonathan McCarthy, "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal 33, no.4 (Fall 2007): 511-37.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr111.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr111.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    4. David C. Parsley & Helen A. Popper, 1998. "Exchange Rates, Domestic Prices, and Central Bank Actions: Recent U.S. Experience," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 957-972, April.
    5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    6. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    7. Evan F. Koenig, 1998. "What's new about the new economy? : some lessons from the current expansion," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 7-11.
    8. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    9. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    10. Wing T. Woo, 1984. "Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nonfood, Nonfuel Products," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 511-536.
    11. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jiawen Yang, 1997. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 95-104, February.
    13. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, October.
    14. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "Price Asynchronization and Price Level Inertia," NBER Working Papers 0900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    16. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    19. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    20. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Faruqee, Hamid & Hakura, Dalia S., 2005. "Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 349-374, March.
    21. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    22. Matthew Higgins & Egon Zakrajšek, 1999. "Purchasing power parity: three stakes through the heart of the unit root null," Staff Reports 80, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Todd E. Clark, 1999. "The Responses Of Prices At Different Stages Of Production To Monetary Policy Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 420-433, August.
    24. Ki-Ho Kim, 1998. "US inflation and the dollar exchange rate: a vector error correction model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 613-619.
    25. Charles Engel & John Rogers, 1998. "Regional Patterns in the Law of One Price: The Roles of Geography versus Currencies," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 153-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
    27. Feinberg, Robert M, 1986. "The Interaction of Foreign Exchange and Market Power Effects on German Domestic Prices," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 61-70, September.
    28. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    29. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "The Effects of Foreign Exchange Movements on U.S. Domestic Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 505-511, August.
    30. Thomas Klitgaard, 1999. "Exchange rates and profit margins: the case of Japanese exporters," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Apr), pages 41-54.
    31. Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1998. "Globalization and U.S. inflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 21-33.
    32. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    33. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    34. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane E. Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2000. "Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Jul).
    37. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Martins Bitans, 2004. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Lian An & Jian Wang, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 359-380, April.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    5. Hai Yue Liu & Xiao Lan Chen, 2017. "The imported price, inflation and exchange rate pass-through in China," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1279814-127, January.
    6. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Throught to Domestic Prices: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 254, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Tapiwa D. Karoro & Meshach J. Aziakpono & Nicolette Cattaneo, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through To Import Prices In South Africa: Is There Asymmetry?1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 380-398, September.
    8. repec:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:3:p:295-329 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2683, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Tapiwa D. Karoro & Meshach J. Aziakpono & Nicolette Cattaneo, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through To Import Prices In South Africa: Is There Asymmetry?1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 380-398, September.
    11. Konopczak, Karolina, 2019. "Can inaction account for the incomplete exchangerate pass-through? Evidence from threshold ARDL model," MF Working Papers 37, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    12. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 1-11, October.
    13. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
    14. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    15. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Marazzi, Mario & Sheets, Nathan, 2007. "Declining exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: The potential role of global factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 924-947, October.
    17. Dr. Jonas Stulz, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions," Economic Studies 2007-04, Swiss National Bank.
    18. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
    19. José Romero, 2013. "¿Es posible utilizar el tipo de cambio para hacer más competitiva la economía mexicana?," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2013-10, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    20. Mallick, Sushanta & Marques, Helena, 2012. "Pricing to market with trade liberalization: The role of market heterogeneity and product differentiation in India’s exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 310-336.
    21. Campa, Jose Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 1999. "Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-314, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pass-through entities; inflation; exchange rates; import prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.