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Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation

  • Robert W. Rich
  • Donald Rissmiller

One of the most surprising features of the long current expansion has been the decline in price inflation through the late 1990s. Some observers interpret the decline as evidence of a permanent change in the relationship between inflation and economic growth. But an analysis based on a standard forecasting model suggests that conventional economic factors_most notably, a decrease in import prices_can account for the low inflation rates in recent years.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 6 (2000)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2000:i:jul:n:v.6no.8
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  1. Chan Guk Huh & Bharat Trehan, 1992. "Modelling the time series behavior of the aggregate wage rate," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Kenneth M. Emery & Chih-Ping Chang, 1996. "Do wages help predict inflation?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 2-9.
  3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  4. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Thomas Klitgaard, 1999. "Exchange rates and profit margins: the case of Japanese exporters," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 41-54.
  6. Robert J. Gordon, 1981. "Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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