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Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?

  • Franz Wolfgang

    ()

    (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Postfach 10 3443, D-68034 Mannheim)

This paper is devoted to a new estimation of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the West German Economy 1980 to 1998. The novelty of the paper is the estimation of a time-varying NAIRU for West Germany employing the Kalman method together with confidence intervals based on the application of a residual based bootstrap. As a result, the NAIRU for 1998 is estimated to lie between 7.9 and 8.5 percent. However, based on a presentation of the theoretical framework and a discussion of serious methodological problems the paper emphasizes several caveats which leave some doubts about the usefulness of the value of NAIRU estimates as guides for economic policy.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik).

Volume (Year): 221 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 256-284

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:221:y:2001:i:3:p:256-284
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