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Die Entwicklung der Arbeitslosenquote: Ein langfristiger Vergleich zwischen Deutschland und den USA

  • Gebhard Flaig

Eine empirische Schätzung der Trend- und Zykluskomponente der Arbeitslosenquote zeigt deutlich die tiefe Krise auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt. Die Trendkomponente ist inzwischen höher als 1950, und es gibt keinerlei Hinweis darauf, dass der Anstieg des Trends zum Stillstand gekommen ist oder dass gar eine Trendwende eingetreten ist. Wenn sich nichts Gravierendes ändert, impliziert das in dem Beitrag geschätzte Modell, dass der Trend der deutschen Arbeitslosenquote in den nächsten vier Jahren um einen weiteren Prozentpunkt ansteigt. Da die Trendkomponente die strukturellen Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit widerspiegelt, müssen Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Beschäftigungssituation hier ansetzen. Ein Vergleich mit der Entwicklung in den USA zeigt, dass ein Anstieg der Trendkomponente der Arbeitslosigkeit kein unabänderliches Schicksal ist.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2003/SD16-2003-S14-19.pdf
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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 56 (2003)
Issue (Month): 16 (08)
Pages: 14-19

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:16:p:14-19
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  1. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
  3. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Wolfgang Franz, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284.
  5. Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre, 2004. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, 05.
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