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NAIRU estimates for Germany: New evidence on the inflation-unemployment trade-off

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  • Kajuth, Florian

Abstract

The paper estimates the NAIRU from a Phillips curve relationship in the state-space framework. To identify the inflation-unemployment trade-off we account for a time-varying inflation trend to control for the part of inflation that is not affected by the cyclical component of unemployment. In addition we use shifts in the relative volatility of shocks to unemployment and inflation to address the simultaneity problem in Phillips curve estimations. Applying the method of Rigobon and Sack (2003) allows for a data driven identification of the contemporaneous coefficients on the unemployment gap in the Phillips curve and yields more precise estimates of the structural coefficients in the Phillips curve. This tightens the economic relation on the basis of which the NAIRU is derived.

Suggested Citation

  • Kajuth, Florian, 2010. "NAIRU estimates for Germany: New evidence on the inflation-unemployment trade-off," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,19, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
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    3. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
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    5. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve and the cyclicality of marginal cost," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 747-765, September.
    6. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    7. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2013. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 94-106, January.
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    9. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Knetsch, Thomas A. & Sonderhof, Katja & Kempe, Wolfram, 2013. "Das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial zu Vollzeitäquivalenten: Messkonzept, Projektion und Anwendungsbeispiele," Discussion Papers 26/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. OECD & Elena Rusticelli, 2014. "Rescuing the Phillips curve: Making use of long-term unemployment in the measurement of the NAIRU," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2014(1), pages 109-127.
    3. De la Serve, M-E. & Lemoine, M., 2011. "Measuring the NAIRU: a complementary approach," Working papers 342, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; state-space estimation; identification through heteroskedasticity; trend inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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