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Phillips Curve and the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate

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  • G.C. LIM
  • ROBERT DIXON
  • SARANTIS TSIAPLIAS

Abstract

A time‐varying Phillips Curve was estimated as a means to examine the changing nature of the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate in Australia. The implied time‐varying equilibrium unemployment rate was generated and the analysis showed the important role played by variations in the slope of the Phillips Curve in changing the equilibrium unemployment rate. The deviations of actual unemployment rates from the estimated equilibrium unemployment rates also performed remarkably well as measures of inflationary pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • G.C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Phillips Curve and the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(271), pages 371-382, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:85:y:2009:i:271:p:371-382
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2009.00568.x
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    1. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & Guay Lim, 2007. "Time-varying equilibrium rates of unemployment: an analysis with Australian data," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 10(4), pages 205-225.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
    2. Chew Lian Chua & Tim Robinson, 2018. "Why Has Australian Wages Growth Been So Low? A Phillips Curve Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 11-32, June.
    3. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2012. "The Forecasting Performance of Single Equation Models of Inflation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(280), pages 64-78, March.
    4. Kajuth Florian, 2016. "NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 104-125, February.
    5. Jared Bullen & Jacinta Greenwell & Michael Kouparitsas & David Muller & John O’Leary & Rhett Wilcox, 2014. "Treasury's medium-term economic projection methodology," Treasury Working Papers 2014-02, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised May 2014.
    6. Tim Robinson & Viet H. Nguyen & Jiao Wang, 2017. "The Australian Economy in 2016–17: Looking Beyond the Apartment Construction Boom," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 5-20, March.
    7. James Bishop & Emma Greenland, 2021. "Is the Phillips Curve Still a Curve? Evidence from the Regions," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Geoff Weir, 2018. "Wage Growth Puzzles and Technology," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Mallick, Debdulal, 2014. "A Spectral Representation of the Phillips Curve in Australia," MPRA Paper 59794, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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