Time-Varying Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment: An Analysis with Australian Data
In this paper we explore a new approach to understanding the evolution of the unemployment rate in Australia. Specifically, we use gross worker flows data to explore the consequences of assuming that there is no unique equilibrium rate of unemployment but rather a continuum of stochastic equilibrium rates which reflect the movement of the entry and exit rates over time. It is shown that the stochastic equilibrium unemployment rate and the observed unemployment rate are very closely related and we explore the reasons why this is so. We examine the short-run dynamics of the entry and exit rates (specifically, the impulse response functions) and the impact on the unemployment rate of shocks to the entry and exit rates and find that shocks to the entry rate have been more important than shocks to the exit rate in bringing about variations in the unemployment rate over our sample period. We then present a new way to disentangle the effects on the (equilibrium) unemployment rate of the business cycle and structural shifts. It would appear that there was a once and for all downward shift in the equilibrium rate(s) of unemployment in Australia in the early 1990s, which likely reflects the introduction of a more generous system of disability pension benefits.
|Date of creation:||May 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia|
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- Balakrishnan, Ravi & Michelacci, Claudio, 2001.
"Unemployment dynamics across OECD countries,"
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- Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & Guay Lim, 2003.
"Why are recessions as deep as they are? The behaviour over time of the outflow from unemployment: a new perspective,"
Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE),
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- Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & G. C. Lim, 2002. "Why Are Recessions As Deep As They Are? The Behaviour Over Time Of The Outflow From Unemployment: A New Perspective," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 842, The University of Melbourne.
- Dixon, R., 2001. "Australian Labour Force Data: How Representative is the 'Population Represented by the Matched Sample'?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 772, The University of Melbourne.
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- Robert E. Hall, 2003. "Modern Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations: Empirics and Policy Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 145-150, May.
- Lixin Cai & Robert G. Gregory, 2004. "The Labour Market Conditions, Applications and Grants of disability support Pension (DSP) in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(3), pages 374-394, September.
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