IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Phillips curve in Australia

  • Gruen, David
  • Pagan, Adrian
  • Thompson, Christopher

In this paper we discuss the development of Phillips curves in Australia over the forty years since Phillips first estimated one using Australian data. We examine the central issues faced by researchers estimating Australian Phillips curves. These include the distinction between the short and long-run trade-offs between inflation and unemployment, and the changing level of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), particularly in the 1970s. We estimate Phillips curves for prices and unit labour costs in Australia over the past three decades. These Phillips curves allow the NAIRU to change through time, and include a role for import prices and ‘speed-limit’ effects. The paper concludes by presenting an extended discussion of the changing role of the Phillips curve in the intellectual framework used to analyse inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia over the past three decades.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBW-3XYG5JB-4/2/962967e60ccdcf52d203c04b22b396ca
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 44 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 223-258

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:44:y:1999:i:2:p:223-258
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. W. E. Norton, 1976. "Inflation And Unemployment: Some Issues," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 1(51), pages 13-28, 02.
  2. Volker Wieland, . "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 11, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
  4. PAGAN, Adrian, . "Some identification and estimation results for regression models with stochastically varying coefficients," CORE Discussion Papers RP -413, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Jeff Borland & Steven Kennedy, 1998. "Dimensions, Structure and History of Australian Unemployment," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Smith, Jeremy & Murphy, Chris, 1994. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 133-48, June.
  7. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9706, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Eric M. Leeper & David B. Gordon, 1991. "In search of the liquidity effect," Working Paper 91-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9510, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "Introduction," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 249-254, November.
  11. Richard Jackman, 1998. "European Unemployment: Why is it so High and What Should be Done About it?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
  12. Kerry E. Schott, 1969. "An Equation for Average Weekly Earnings," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  14. Challen, D W & Hagger, A J, 1975. "Another Look at Australia's Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Offs," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(25), pages 137-53, December.
  15. Parkin, Michael, 1973. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs Between Inflation and Unemployment in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(21), pages 127-44, December.
  16. Ian J. Macfarlane, 1989. "Policy targets and operating procedures: the Australian case," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 143-159.
  17. Parkin, Michael, 1976. "Yet Another Look at Australia's Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs between Inflation and Unemployment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(26), pages 128-39, June.
  18. Kirby, Michael G, 1981. "An Investigation of the Specification and Stability of the Australian Aggregate Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(156), pages 35-46, March.
  19. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  20. P.D. Jonson & K.L. Mahar, 1972. "Earnings and Award Wages in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp27, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  21. Jonson, P D & Mahar, K L & Thompson, G J, 1974. "Earnings and Award Wages in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(22), pages 80-98, June.
  22. Rao, B Bhaskara, 1977. "An Analysis of the Short and Long-run Trade-offs between Unemployment and Inflation and Estimates of the Equilibrium Steady State Unemployment Rate in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(29), pages 273-84, December.
  23. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  24. Nevile, J W, 1975. "A Comment on Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs between Inflation and Unemployment in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(24), pages 132-36, June.
  25. Gregory, R G, 1986. "Wages Policy and Unemployment in Australia," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S53-74, Supplemen.
  26. McDonald, John, 1975. "Wages and Prices in Australia: On the Short and Long-run Trade-Offs between Inflation and Unemployment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(25), pages 154-70, December.
  27. Argy, Victor & Brennan, Anthony & Stevens, Glenn, 1990. "Monetary Targeting: The International Experience," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 66(192), pages 37-62, March.
  28. Nevile, John W, 1977. "Domestic and Overseas Influences on Inflation in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(28), pages 121-29, June.
  29. David Gruen & Jacqueline Dwyer, 1995. "Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9508, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  30. Mardi Dungey & John Pitchford, 1998. "Prospects for Output and Employment Growth with Steady Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
  31. Perry, L J, 1980. "A Note on Phillips and Phillips Curve Economics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 56(152), pages 87-90, March.
  32. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  33. P.D. Jonson & K.L. Mahar & G.J. Thompson, 1973. "Earnings and Award Wages in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp27rev, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  34. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  35. Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn, 2012. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 1 Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:44:y:1999:i:2:p:223-258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.