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Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?

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  • David Gruen
  • Jacqueline Dwyer

Abstract

This article explores the relationship between the terms of trade and inflation. It shows, both analytically and empirically, that the exchange rate response to a change in the terms of trade is crucial to the inflation outcome. It demonstrates the existence of a ‘threshold’ exchange rate response. Our best estimate is that a rise in the terms of trade is inflationary if the associated rise in the real exchange rate is less than about 1/3–1/2 of the rise in the terms of trade. However, if appreciation of the real exchange rate is larger than this, the consequent fall in the domestic price of importables is large enough that the terms of trade rise reduces inflation, at least in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • David Gruen & Jacqueline Dwyer, 1996. "Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(2), pages 211-224, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:29:y:1996:i:2:p:211-224
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8462.1996.tb00926.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christopher Kent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9709, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    4. Syed Kanwar Abbas & Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya & Debdulal Mallick & Pasquale Sgro, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: Empirical Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 409-434, September.
    5. Gordon D. Menzies, 2005. "Who'S Afraid Of The Marshall-Lerner Condition?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 24(4), pages 309-315, December.
    6. Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel, 2004. "A Small Macroeconmetric Model Of Trade And Inflation In Ghana," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 696, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    7. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    8. Gregorio Impavido, 2018. "Short Term Inflation Determinants in Barbados," IMF Working Papers 2018/134, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Gordon de Brouwer, 1999. "Deregulation and Open Capital Markets: The Australian Experience Before Wallis," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 51-68.
    10. Jacqueline Dwyer & Kenneth Leong, 2001. "Changes in the Determinants of Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Malcolm Edey, 1997. "The Debate on Alternatives for Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Ameyaw, Samuel Donyina, 2004. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of Trade and Inflation in Ghana," Economic Research Papers 269590, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    13. Jacqueline Dwyer & Kenneth Leong, 2001. "Changes in the determinants of inflation in Australia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 1-28, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Megha Chhabra & Qamar Alam, 2020. "An empirical study of trade openness and inflation in India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 47(1), pages 79-90, March.
    15. Temitope L. A. Leshoro, 2023. "An Analysis of the Importance of Terms of Trade in South Africa Using Impulse Response Function," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(2), pages 243-257, April.
    16. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    17. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    18. Kiran Ijaz & Muhammad Zakaria & Bashir A. Fida, 2014. "Terms-of-Trade Volatility and Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 111-132, Jan-June.
    19. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry-McKibbin & Verity Linehan, 2014. "Chinese resource demand and the natural resource supplier," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 167-178, January.
    20. Christian Broda, 2002. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Staff Reports 148, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Valadkhani, Abbas & Layton, Allan P. & Karunaratne, Neil D., 2005. "Export Price Volatility in Australia: An Application of ARCH and GARCH Models," Economics Working Papers wp05-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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