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Tariffs, The Real Exchange Rate and the Terms of Trade: On Two Popular Propositions in International Economics


  • Edwards, Sebastian
  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder


In this paper we investigate the relation between tariff changes, terms of trade changes and the equilibrium real exchange rate. For this purpose we use two models of a small open economy: (1) a three goods version of the Ricardo-Viner model; and (2) a three goods model with full intersectoral factor mobility. We show that, in general, it is not possible to know how the equilibrium real exchange rate will respond to these two disturbances. Moreover, we show that the traditional wisdom that establishes that a tariff hike will always result in a real appreciation, while a terms of trade worsening will generate an equilibrium real depreciation, is incorrect.
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  • Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1987. "Tariffs, The Real Exchange Rate and the Terms of Trade: On Two Popular Propositions in International Economics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 458-464, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:39:y:1987:i:3:p:458-64

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. J. Peter Neary, 1985. "International Factor Mobility, Minimum Wage Rates, and Factor-Price Equalization: A Synthesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(3), pages 551-570.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Gruen & Jacqueline Dwyer, 1996. "Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(2), pages 211-224.
    2. Tokarick, Stephen, 2008. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 60-62, October.
    3. Meza, Felipe & Urrutia, Carlos, 2011. "Financial liberalization, structural change, and real exchange rate appreciations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 317-328.
    4. Chung-Fu Lai, 2016. "Tariff, Consumption Home Bias and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(8), pages 425-444, August.
    5. Clements, Kenneth W. & Fry, Renée, 2008. "Commodity currencies and currency commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 55-73, June.
    6. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "Government, Financial Markets, and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 3669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Dubas, Justin M., 2009. "The Importance of the Exchange Rate Regime in Limiting Misalignment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1612-1622, October.
    8. Astorga, Pablo, 2012. "Mean reversion in long-horizon real exchange rates: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1529-1550.
    9. Jacqueline Dwyer & Philip Lowe, 1993. "Alternative Concepts of the Real Exchange Rate: A Reconciliation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9309, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Hong-Ghi Min, 2002. "Inequality, the price of nontradables, and the real exchange rate : theory and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2758, The World Bank.
    11. Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.
    12. Bharat Hazari & Pasquale Sgro, 1996. "Free trade zones, tariffs and the real exchange rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 199-217, July.
    13. Soledad Arellano & Felipe Larraín, 1996. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Gasto Público: Un Modelo Econométrico para Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 33(98), pages 47-76.
    14. Chaban, Maxym, 2011. "Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 793-806.
    15. J. Love & E. Turner, 2001. "Exports, domestic policy and world markets: a panel study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 615-627.
    16. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:55:y:2010:i:03:n:s0217590810003857 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Hong-Ghi Min & Sang-Ook Shin & Judith A. McDonald, 2015. "Income Inequality and the Real Exchange Rate: Linkages and Evidence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(1), pages 115-141, May.
    18. Kam Leong Szeto & Paul Gardiner & Richard Gray & David Hargreaves, 2003. "A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the New Zealand Economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/25, New Zealand Treasury.

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