IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/warwec/696.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Small Macroeconmetric Model Of Trade And Inflation In Ghana

Author

Listed:
  • Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper contains an empirical investigation of the effects of trade and inflation on a conventional macroeconometric model for Ghana. First, the results corroborate the findings of the Fund that both devaluation and credit restraint are effective in addressing the balance of payment issues facing Ghana. Second, the direction and time pattern of the effects of these two policy experiments are different. Third, further depreciation of the domestic currency is unfavourable to the cause of curbing inflation in Ghana. It rather leads to price increases and is a source of fueling inflation, and could lead to a spiral of inflation through the agitation for higher wages by employees.

Suggested Citation

  • Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel, 2004. "A Small Macroeconmetric Model Of Trade And Inflation In Ghana," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 696, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:696
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2008/twerp696.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
    2. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92.
    3. Musila, Jacob Wanjala, 2002. "An econometric model of the Malawian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 295-330, March.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. David Gruen & Jacqueline Dwyer, 1996. "Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(2), pages 211-224, April.
    7. Jere Behrman & James A. Hanson, 1979. "The Use of Econometric Models in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Short-Term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America, pages 1-38, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Khan, Mohsin S. & Montiel, Peter & Haque, Nadeem U., 1990. "Adjustment with growth : Relating the analytical approaches of the IMF and the World Bank," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 155-179, January.
    9. Dordunoo, Cletus K., 1994. "The structure and policy implications of a macroeconomic model of Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 1243-1251, August.
    10. Harvey, A C, 1980. "On Comparing Regression Models in Levels and First Differences," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(3), pages 707-720, October.
    11. Marwah, Kanta, 1969. "An Econometric Model of Colombia: A Prototype Devaluation View," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(2), pages 228-251, April.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    13. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    14. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
    15. Khan, Mohsin S. & Knight, Malcolm D., 1982. "Some theoretical and empirical issues relating to economic stabilization in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 709-730, September.
    16. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    17. Connolly, Michael B & Taylor, Dean G, 1979. "Exchange Rate Changes and Neutralization: A Test of the Monetary Approach Applied to Developed and Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 46(183), pages 281-294, August.
    18. Richard C. Marston, 1983. "Stabilization Policies in Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 1117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Lipumba, Nguyuru & Ndulu, Benno & Horton, Sue & Plourde, Andre, 1988. "A supply constrained macroeconometric model of Tanzania," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 354-376, October.
    20. J. J. Polak, 1957. "Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-50, November.
    21. M. M. Huq, 1989. "The Economy of Ghana," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-19749-1.
    22. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    23. Dekle, Robert & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1999. "Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in the ASEAN Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 205-215, July.
    24. Mr. Robert Dekle & Mahmood Pradhan, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in Asean Countries: Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 1997/036, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Sundararajan, V., 1986. "Exchange rate versus credit policy : Analysis with a monetary model of trade and inflation in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-105.
    26. Adam, Christopher S, 1991. "Financial Innovation and the Demand for LM3 in the UK 1975-86," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(4), pages 401-424, November.
    27. Ghartey, Edward E. & Rao, U. L. G., 1990. "A short-run forecasting model of Ghana," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 291-308, July.
    28. Sebastian Edwards & Liaquat Ahamed, 1986. "Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa86-1, March.
    29. Sowa, Nii Kwaku, 1994. "Fiscal deficits, output growth and inflation targets in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 1105-1117, August.
    30. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-654, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ameyaw, Samuel Donyina, 2004. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of Trade and Inflation in Ghana," Economic Research Papers 269590, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    2. Kamal Upadhyaya & Franklin Mixon & Rabindra Bhandari, 2004. "Exchange rate adjustment and output in Greece and Cyprus: evidence from panel data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(16), pages 1181-1185.
    3. A. E. Akinlo & A. F. Odusola, 2003. "Assessing the impact of Nigeria's naira depreciation on output and inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 691-703.
    4. Taye, Haile Kebret, 1999. "The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, July.
    5. Mr. Subramanian S Sriram, 1999. "Survey of Literature on Demand for Money: Theoretical and Empirical Work with Special Reference to Error-Correction Models," IMF Working Papers 1999/064, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ghura, Dhaneshwar, 1995. "Effects of macroeconomic policies on income growth, inflation, and output growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 367-395, August.
    7. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    8. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    9. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    10. Soriano, Ma. Cecilia G., 1990. "Classifying the Economy into Traded or Nontraded Sectors," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1990 Vol. XVII No. 2-, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    11. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2004. "Structural change in exports and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Spain (1961-2000)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 473-477.
    12. Vicente Meneu & Hipòlit Torró, 2003. "Asymmetric covariance in spot‐futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(11), pages 1019-1046, November.
    13. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho de Guillén & Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araújo, 2005. "O Mecanismo De Transmissão Da Taxa De Câmbio Para Índices De Preços: Uma Análise Vecm Para O Brasil," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 034, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    15. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
    16. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    17. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    18. Amir Alizadeh & Manolis Kavussanos & David Menachof, 2004. "Hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts: constant versus time-varying hedge ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1337-1353.
    19. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Staff Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada.
    20. Abdul Qayyum, 2000. "Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 857-873.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:696. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.