Real appreciation and output: Russia 1993—1997
The paper shows that, in 1993-1997, larger month-to-month real appreciation in Russia was associated with larger month-to-month increase in the aggregate supply, supposedly because of a decrease in the prices of imported production inputs. At the same time, according to our estimations, short-term adjustments of the aggregate demand were not sensitive to month-to-month real appreciation. Thus, the cumulative effect of month-to-month real appreciation on the short-run changes in real GDP turned out to be positive. Our results imply that the sharp contraction of output soon after the crisis of August 17, 1998 was caused by the sharp real depreciation of the Russian rouble in August and September of the same year. Another hypothesis suggested by the paper is that the recovery of output after several months of contraction was due to the increase in real (deflated by the producer price index) money holdings We attribute this increase in real money demand to the collapse of GKO/OFZ market. However, an explanation of the post-crisis dynamics of real GDP would require a more thorough analysis.
|Date of creation:||18 Apr 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 92/94, Dmytrivska Str., suite 404, Kyiv, 01135 Ukraine|
Web page: http://www.eercnetwork.com
|Order Information:|| Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 92/94, Dmytrivska Str., suite 404, Kyiv, 01135 Ukraine|
Web: https://eercnetwork.com/paper Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
- Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1982.
"Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- LÃ¡szlÃ³ Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
- Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- anonymous, 1987. "Review of domestic and external economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 50, march.
- Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
- Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1986. "Exchange Rate Management and Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters,in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 17-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Buffie, Edward F., 1986. "Devaluation, investment and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 361-379, March.
- Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
- P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Ng, Yew-Kwang, 1987. "The Role of Economists and Third-Best Policies," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 42(1), pages 152-155.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Buffie, Edward F., 1984. "Financial repression, the new structuralists, and stabilization policy in semi-industrialized economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 305-322, April.
- -, 1987. "Evolución de la economía brasileña," Informe Estadístico – Oficina de la CEPAL en Brasilia 27977, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- -, 1987. "Planning for a fresh social and economic dynamic," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, April.
- Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 43-65, February.
- Torsten Persson & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," NBER Working Papers 1129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- anonymous, 1987. "New Zealand economic chronology 1986," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 50, march.
- Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:99-13e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anton Pashchenko)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.