IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Real appreciation and output: Russia 1993—1997

  • Dynnikova Oksana


Registered author(s):

    The paper shows that, in 1993-1997, larger month-to-month real appreciation in Russia was associated with larger month-to-month increase in the aggregate supply, supposedly because of a decrease in the prices of imported production inputs. At the same time, according to our estimations, short-term adjustments of the aggregate demand were not sensitive to month-to-month real appreciation. Thus, the cumulative effect of month-to-month real appreciation on the short-run changes in real GDP turned out to be positive. Our results imply that the sharp contraction of output soon after the crisis of August 17, 1998 was caused by the sharp real depreciation of the Russian rouble in August and September of the same year. Another hypothesis suggested by the paper is that the recovery of output after several months of contraction was due to the increase in real (deflated by the producer price index) money holdings We attribute this increase in real money demand to the collapse of GKO/OFZ market. However, an explanation of the post-crisis dynamics of real GDP would require a more thorough analysis.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 99-13e.

    in new window

    Length: 55 pages
    Date of creation: 18 Apr 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:99-13e
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 92/94, Dmytrivska Str., suite 404, Kyiv, 01135 Ukraine

    Phone: +38(044)492-8012
    Fax: +1(202)478-1968
    Web page:

    Order Information: Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 92/94, Dmytrivska Str., suite 404, Kyiv, 01135 Ukraine
    Web: Email:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. anonymous, 1987. "Review of domestic and external economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 50, march.
    2. anonymous, 1987. "New Zealand economic chronology 1986," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 50, march.
    3. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, December.
    4. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
    5. Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
    6. Buffie, Edward F., 1986. "Devaluation, investment and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 361-379, March.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    8. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Torsten Persson & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," NBER Working Papers 1129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. -, 1987. "Evolución de la economía brasileña," Informe Estadístico – Oficina de la CEPAL en Brasilia 27977, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
    12. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. -, 1987. "Planning for a fresh social and economic dynamic," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    15. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    16. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
    17. Ng, Yew-Kwang, 1987. "The Role of Economists and Third-Best Policies," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 42(1), pages 152-55.
    18. Buffie, Edward F., 1984. "Financial repression, the new structuralists, and stabilization policy in semi-industrialized economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 305-322, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:99-13e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anton Pashchenko)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.