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Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Reinhart, Vincent

Abstract

Using annual data for Colombia over the last 30 years, we test competing theories that explain macroeconomic fluctuations: the neoclassical synthesis, which posits that in the presence of temporary price rigidity, an unanticipated monetary expansion produces output gains that erode over time with increases in the price level; and an alternative explanation, which focuses on "real" technological or preference shocks as sources of output changes. Coefficients from this system are used to examine the long-run neutrality of nominal quantities with respect to permanent movements in the money stock and the short-run sensitivity of output to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1991. "Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 6980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6980
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 1997. "The relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks to output and prices in Mexico and Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 458-478, September.
    2. Andres Fern√°ndez, 2003. "Reformas Estructurales, Impacto Macroecon√Ìmico Y Pol√Çtica Monetaria En Colombia," Documentos CEDE 3434, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Clavijo, Sergio, 1994. "Relative price and inflation uncertainty in Colombia: A case of chronic moderate inflation 1970-1990," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 9(1), pages 119-136.
    4. Juan Carlos Echeverry G., 1996. "Short Run Savings Fluctuations And Export Shocks.Theory And Evidence For Latin-America," Borradores de Economia 3498, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Carlos Esteban Posada P., 1995. "Dinero, Interes, Inflacion Y Fluctuaciones Economicas En Colombia Desde 1958," Borradores de Economia 2365, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
    7. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1-1.
    8. José R Sánchez-Fung, 2000. "Money Demand, PPP and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Developing Economy," Studies in Economics 0015, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    9. Raju, Sudhakar S. & Melo, Alberto, 2003. "Money, real output, and deficit effects of coffee booms in Colombia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 963-983, December.
    10. Kamas, Linda, 1995. "Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-161, February.
    11. Ansari, M. I., 1996. "Monetary vs. fiscal policy: Some evidence from vector autoregression for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 677-698.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 1993. "Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks in Colombia: Reply to García," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 876-877, December.
    13. Gonzalo Hernández, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Output Fluctuations in Colombia," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    14. Jesus Otero, 2001. "Coffee export booms and monetary disequilibrium: some evidence for Colombia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 267-276.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A & Vegh, Carlos A, 1996. "Disinflation and Interest-Bearing Money," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1546-1563, November.
    16. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Edison Henao Atehortúa, 1995. "Innovaciones monetarias y fluctuaciones del producto en Colombia," Ensayos de Economía 9515, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    17. Ansari, M. I. & Ahmed, S. M., 2007. "Does money matter? Evidence from vector error-correction for Mexico," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 185-202, September.
    18. Mr. Joe Crowley, 1997. "The Effects of Forward-Versus Backward-Looking Wage Indexationon Price Stabilization Programs," IMF Working Papers 1997/038, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Rasaki, Mutiu Gbade & Malikane, Christopher, 2015. "Macroeconomic shocks and fluctuations in African economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 675-696.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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