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Dinero, Interés, Inflación y Fluctuaciones económicas en Colombia desde 1958

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  • Carlos Esteban Posada

Abstract

No es fácil entender la naturaleza de las funciones del dinero y sus efectos económicos. La forma clásica de abordar este asunto, relacionada sin duda con su dificultad, ha sido partir de algunos supuestos simplificadores. Con ellos se avanza por el camino exploratorio, y eventualmente, se revisa su pertinencia a la luz de los hallazgos. El primer supuesto es considerar que la esencia del dinero es ser aquello que la sociedad acepta como el medio general de compras y pagos. El segundo consiste en suponer que la cantidad ofrecida (y lanzada al mercado) de dinero es exógena con respecto a las variables económicas, y que lo que tiene determinación económica es la cantidad demandada de dinero. Con estos supuestos se hacen las investigaciones iniciales en el campo de los efectos macroeconómicos del dinero, es decir, en el campo de la inflación, las tasas de interés y la evolución coyuntural del producto real, sin perjuicio de revisar algún supuesto al final del camino. Este es el enfoque de este documento, y su motivación es obvia como se vera a continuación. Los casi 40 años corridos desde 1958 han sido testigos de variaciones intensas de la inflación, aunque más al principio que al final. En efecto, entre 1958 y 1974 se observan inflaciones con un nivel medio más alto: 22% anual, con una desviación estándar de 2.3%. También han sido años de oscilaciones de la tasa de crecimiento del PIB real fue 1.7% entre 1958 y 1992, lo cual equivale a 38% de inestabilidad si se la compara con la tasa media de crecimiento, que fue 4.5% anual entre 1958 y 1992. Un conjunto clásico, y más específico, de hipótesis adicionales es el siguiente: Siendo relativamente estable la demanda de dinero, medido éste en términos de poder de compra, las variaciones de su oferta pueden explicar no solo el comportamiento de mediano o largo plazo de nivel de precios sino también buena parte de las fluctuaciones económicas de corto plazo en economías con rigideces transitorias de precios y expectativas.
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Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Esteban Posada, 1995. "Dinero, Interés, Inflación y Fluctuaciones económicas en Colombia desde 1958," Borradores de Economia 044, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:044
    DOI: 10.32468/be.44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mauricio Carrizosa, 1983. "La definición de dinero, los medios de pago y los cuasidineros en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 2(3), pages 37-48, April.
    2. Bhaskara Rao, B. & Rao, Gyaneshwar, 2009. "Cointegration and the demand for gasoline," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3978-3983, October.
    3. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1990. "Money supply," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 357-398, Elsevier.
    4. Juan Manuel Julio, 1995. "Choques grandes / Choques pequenos: Evidencia del Log (IPC) e inflación colombianos," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 14(28), pages 59-93, December.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 1991. "Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 705-735, December.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1990. "Why does money affect output? A survey," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 779-835, Elsevier.
    7. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356, Elsevier.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    9. Carlos Esteban Posada & Martha Misas Arango, 1995. "La Tasa De Interés En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3087, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
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    1. Fernández Andrés, 2003. "Reformas estructurales, impacto macroeconómico y política monetaria en Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, March.

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