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Reformas Estructurales, Impacto Macroeconómico Y Política Monetaria En Colombia

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  • Andres Fernández

Abstract

Las reformas estructurales de principios de los noventas tuvieron un "impacto" macroeconómico relevante: el producto colombiano es más volátil que antes y parece exhibir un ciclo económico más corto y pronunciado. En el trabajo se documenta este hecho estilizado a partir de una muestra de datos trimestrales que abarca un período antes y otro después de las reformas estructurales. Se emplearon dos metodologías alternativas. En primer lugar, se emplea la metodología de VAR en forma reducida y VAR estructural propuesta por Christiano, Eichenbaum y Evans (1998) para descomponer los choques estructurales y sus mecanismos de propagación en la economía colombiana. En segundo lugar, se recurre a un enfoque seminarrativo siguiendo a Romer y Romer (1989) y Echeverry (1996) para documentar la conducción de la política por parte del Emisor durante este período y su relevancia en la explicación de los hechos estilizados. La evidencia muestra que la mayor volatilidad real no se explica porque el Emisor haya dejado de realizar política contracíclica. Un ejemplo de esto son las recesiones de 1996 y 1999, donde se documenta la política expansionista realizada por del Banco de la República dentro de los límites impuestos por el nuevo mandato constitucional antiinflacionario. Más bien, la explicación está en que, a pesar de este comportamiento, el Banco Emisor no está en capacidad de amortiguar como antes, primero, el ciclo de un producto que se muestra más vulnerable por mayores choques estructurales de oferta y demanda; y, segundo, una economía cuyos mecanismos de transmisión parecen haberse vuelto más sensible a estos choques.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres Fernández, 2003. "Reformas Estructurales, Impacto Macroeconómico Y Política Monetaria En Colombia," Documentos CEDE 3434, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:003434
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclo económico;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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