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New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates

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  • Kalyvitis, Sarantis
  • Michaelides, Alexander

Abstract

We examine the impact of US monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using the monetary policy indicator proposed by Bernanke and Mihov [Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113 (1998) 869–902]. We find evidence for instantaneous, rather than delayed, US dollar overshooting after a monetary shock when relative output and relative prices are included in the VAR specification. The forward premium puzzle persists due to the interest rate differential response.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Michaelides, Alexander, 2001. "New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 255-263, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:71:y:2001:i:2:p:255-263
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    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
    4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    7. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
    8. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Roley, V Vance & Sellon, Gordon H, Jr, 1998. "Monetary Policy Actions, Intervention, and Exchange Rates: A Reexamination of the Empirical Relationships Using Federal Funds Rate Target Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 147-177, April.
    9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    10. Charles L. Evans, 1994. "Interest rate shocks and the dollar," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep, pages 11-24.
    11. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "When did the FOMC begin targeting the federal funds rate? what the verbatim transcripts tell us," Working Papers 2004-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Patureau, Lise, 2007. "Pricing-to-market, limited participation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3281-3320, October.
    3. Pippenger, John, 2012. "The Fragility of Overshooting," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4rd5j98c, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    4. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2010. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on cross exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 386-394, August.
    5. Karamé, Frédéric & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2008. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics: Does theory meet the data?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1041-1087, April.
    6. Lise Patureau, 2002. "Pricing-to-market and limited participation : a joint explanation to the exchange rate disconnect puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 299, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Bouakez, Hafedh & Normandin, Michel, 2010. "Fluctuations in the foreign exchange market: How important are monetary policy shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 139-153, May.
    8. Pippenger, John, 2008. "Freely Floating Exchange Rates Do Not Systematically Overshoot," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt97m8z6hw, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    9. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Estimating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy reaction function," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 169-183.
    10. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2004. "Overshooting and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: a reappraisal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 615-643, June.
    11. Pippenger, John, 2009. "Dornbusch Was Wrong: There is no Convincing Evidence of Overshooting, Delayed or Otherwise," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt78k0b5zw, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    12. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Estimating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy reaction function," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 169-183.
    13. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    14. Ellen E. Meade, 2005. "The FOMC: preferences, voting, and consensus," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 93-101.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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