The FOMC: preferences, voting, and consensus
In this paper, the author develops and uses an original dataset collected from the internal discussion of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee (the Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC] transcripts) to examine questions about the Committee's behavior. The data show that Chairman Alan Greenspan's proposals, after Committee discussion, were nearly always adopted unmodified in the formal vote. Despite the external appearance of consensus with little disagreement over decisions and an official dissent rate of 7.5 percent, the data reveal that the rate of disagreement in internal Committee discussions was quite high-on the order of 30 percent for discussions of the short-term interest rate. And, under the assumption that FOMC voters assigned a higher priority to their preferences for the short-term interest rate than for the bias in the policy directive, it can be shown that this bias was important for achieving consensus, which supports and extends the results of Thornton and Wheelock (2000). Thus, the novel dataset described in this paper helps to shed some light on the internal workings of the FOMC in the Greenspan years.
Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
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- James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, .
"A model for the federal funds rate target,"
Department of Economics
99-07, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2000. "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target," NBER Working Papers 7847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"Measuring monetary policy,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Michaelides, Alexander, 2001. "New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 255-263, May.
- Sarantis Kalyvitis & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 197, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "When did the FOMC begin targeting the federal funds rate? what the verbatim transcripts tell us," Working Papers 2004-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Meade, Ellen E & Sheets, D Nathan, 2005. "Regional Influences on FOMC Voting Patterns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 661-77, August.
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