IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics : does theory meet the data ?

  • Frédéric Karamé

    ()

    (EPEE et CEPII)

  • Lise Patureau

    ()

    (EUREQua)

  • Thepthida Sopraseuth

    ()

    (EPEE et CEPREMAP)

Meese and Rogoff [1983] show that macroeconomic models of the Seventies fail to outperform the random walk exchange rate forecasts. Macroeconomics thus provides useless information as far as out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting is concerned. However, since Meese and Rogoff's seminal paper, advances have been made in the theoretical modeling of international macroeconomic dynamics. New Open Economy Macroeconomics, developed in the wake of Obstfeld and Rogoff [1995]'s work, shows that intertemporal general equilibrium models capture international stylized facts. In particular, Hairault, Patureau and Sopraseuth [2002] have shown that a small open economy model based on credit market frictions successfully accounts for exchange rate volatility. This paper aims at assessing the empirical performances of this model. First, the model statistically matches a large set of features observed in the data, in addition to exchange rate dynamics. Credit market frictions are found to be critical in making the model consistent with the data. Secondly, we find that, in the recent period only, the limited participation model succeeds in outperforming the random walk exchange rate forecasts in the medium run.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/cahiers2004/V04013.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number v04013.

as
in new window

Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v04013
Contact details of provider: Postal: 106 - 112 boulevard de l'Hôpital, 75647 Paris cedex 13
Phone: 01 44 07 81 00
Fax: 01 44 07 81 09
Web page: http://mse.univ-paris1.fr/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  2. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Monetary policy in an estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  4. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, Francois & Portier, Franck, 1997. "Time to implement and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-121, November.
  5. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 48, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Apr 2001.
  6. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  7. Galí, Jordi, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
  9. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
  10. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
  11. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-52, July.
  12. Patrick Fève, 1997. "Les méthodes d'étalonnage au regard de l'économétrie," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 629-638.
  13. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  15. Fabrice Collard & Patrick Fève & Fran�ois Langot & Corinne Perraudin, 2002. "A structural model of US aggregate job flows," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 197-223.
  16. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
  17. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  18. Jean-Olivier Hairault & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2004. "Overshooting and Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle: A Reappraisal," Macroeconomics 0410001, EconWPA.
  19. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2004. "Overshooting and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: a reappraisal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 615-643, June.
  21. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  22. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
  23. Von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2001. "Monetary transmission in Germany: new perspectives on financial constraints and investment spending," Working Paper Series 0109, European Central Bank.
  24. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1991. "Calibration in Macroeconomics," Working Papers 826, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  25. Yongsung Chang & Jay H. Hong, 2006. "Do Technological Improvements in the Manufacturing Sector Raise or Lower Employment?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 352-368, March.
  26. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 431-461, June.
  27. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 10309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August.
  29. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2005. "DSGE Models of High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/23, European University Institute.
  31. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  32. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
  33. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  35. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Michaelides, Alexander, 2001. "New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 255-263, May.
  36. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1997. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 6307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  38. Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. S. Hendry & G-J. Zhang, 1999. "Liquidity Effects and Market Frictions," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 29, Netherlands Central Bank.
  40. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
  41. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Generale, Andrea & Hernando, Ignacio & Von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Vermeulen, Philip, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary transmission in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0112, European Central Bank.
  42. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
  43. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-53, May.
  44. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  46. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Ulf Von Kalckreuth & Philip Vermeulen, 2003. "Firm investment and monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00112525, HAL.
  47. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Towards new open economy macroeconometrics," Staff Reports 100, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  48. Kollmann, Robert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  49. Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The past, present, and future of macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 97-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  50. S Millard & Andrew Scott & M Sensier, 1997. "The Labour Market over the Business Cycle: Can Theory Fit the Facts?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0364, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  51. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
  52. den Haan, Wouter J. & Levin, Andrew T, 2000. "Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation with Data-Dependent VAR Prewhitening Order," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0127m2tp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  53. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  54. Jonsson, G. & Klein, P., 1995. "Stochastic Fiscal Policy and the Swedish Business Cycle," Papers 592, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  55. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  56. van Els, Peter J. A. & Locarno, Alberto & Morgan, Julian & Villetelle, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: What do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Working Paper Series 0094, European Central Bank.
  57. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  58. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  59. Niki Papadopoulou, 2006. "Sticky Prices vs. Limited Participation:What Do We Learn From the Data?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 418, Society for Computational Economics.
  60. Dow, James Jr., 1995. "The demand and liquidity effects of monetary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 91-115, August.
  61. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November.
  62. Andersen, Torben M. & Beier, Niels C., 2005. "International transmission of transitory and persistent monetary shocks under imperfect information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 485-507, July.
  63. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  64. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
  65. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor rules in a limited participation model," Working Paper 9902, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  66. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  67. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
  68. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Kollman, R., 1996. "The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation," Cahiers de recherche 9614, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  70. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
  71. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  72. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  73. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  74. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1991. "Modeling the liquidity effect of a money shock," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-34.
  75. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
  76. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May.
  77. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  78. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  79. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
  80. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  81. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  82. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: The role of money and nominal rigidities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1547-1583, October.
  83. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Roley, V Vance & Sellon, Gordon H, Jr, 1998. "Monetary Policy Actions, Intervention, and Exchange Rates: A Reexamination of the Empirical Relationships Using Federal Funds Rate Target Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 147-77, April.
  84. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  85. Scott Hendry & Wai-Ming Ho & Kevin Moran, 2003. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules in an Open-Economy, Limited-Participation Model," Working Papers 03-38, Bank of Canada.
  86. McAdam, Peter & Morgan, Julian, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 0093, European Central Bank.
  87. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International business cycles: theory vs. evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-29.
  88. Dridi, Ramdan & Guay, Alain & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Indirect inference and calibration of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 397-430, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v04013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lucie Label)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.