IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in a New-Keynesian baseline model

  • Franke, Reiner
  • Jang, Tae-Seok
  • Sacht, Stephen

The paper considers an elementary New-Keynesian three equation model and compares its Bayesian estimation to the results from the method of moments (MM), which seeks to match finite set of the model-generated second moments of inflation, output and the interest rate to their empirical counterparts. It is found that in the Great Inflation (GI) period - though not in the Great Moderation (GM)|the two estimations imply a significantly different covariance structure. Regarding the parameters, special emphasis is placed on the degree of backward-looking behaviour in the Phillips curve. While, in line with much of the literature, it plays a minor role in the Bayesian estimations, MM yields values of the price indexation parameter close to or even at its maximal value of unity. For both GI and GM, these results are worth noticing since in (strong or, respectively, weak) contrast to the Bayesian parameters, the covariance matching thus achieved is entirely satisfactory.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2012-08.

in new window

Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201208
Contact details of provider: Postal: D-24098 Kiel,Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1
Phone: 0431-880 3282
Fax: 0431-880 3150
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Henzel, Steffen & Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "The price puzzle revisited: Can the cost channel explain a rise in inflation after a monetary policy shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 268-289, June.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  3. David E. Altig & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2004. "Firm-specific capital, nominal rigidities, and the business cycle," Working Paper 0416, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Learning and monetary policy shifts," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Collard, Fabrice & Fève, Patrick & Langot, François & Perraudin, Corinne, 1999. "A structural model for US aggregate job flows," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9910, CEPREMAP.
  6. Steffen Ahrens & Stephen Sacht, 2011. "Estimating a High-Frequency New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Kiel Working Papers 1686, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 397-433.
  8. Ambler, Steve & Guay, Alain & Phaneuf, Louis, 2012. "Endogenous business cycle propagation and the persistence problem: The role of labor-market frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 47-62.
  9. Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "Changes in the Federal Reserve’s Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 607, Boston College Department of Economics.
  10. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  11. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2006. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1461-1481, September.
  12. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(547), pages 1100-1124, 09.
  14. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2005. "Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence," Working Papers 05-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  15. Benati, Luca & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "VAR analysis and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series 0866, European Central Bank.
  16. Kevin D. Sheedy, 2007. "Intrinsic inflation persistence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3739, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  17. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Frank Schorfheide & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Maxym Kryshko & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2009. "Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours," NBER Working Papers 15375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Ansgar Belke & Ingo G. Bordon & Torben W. Hendricks, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Global Liquidity and Commodity Price Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 971, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  19. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2011. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in the new-Keynesian three-equations model," Economics Working Papers 2011,10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  20. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Estimation of DSGE models when the data are persistent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 325-340, April.
  21. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-26, December.
  22. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2003. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 789-815, May.
  23. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
  24. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  25. Jonsson, Gunnar & Klein, Paul, 1996. "Stochastic fiscal policy and the Swedish business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 245-268, October.
  26. KIM, Jinill & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2009. "Monetary Policy When Wages Are Downwardly Rigid : Friedman Meets Tobin," Cahiers de recherche 15-2009, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  27. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
  28. Sacht, Stephen, 2014. "Identification of prior information via moment-matching," Economics Working Papers 2014-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  29. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics : does theory meet the data ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  30. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
  31. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  32. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  33. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2012. "Comparison of misspecified calibrated models: The minimum distance approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 131-138.
  34. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2005. "Online Appendix to "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle"," Technical Appendices 09-191, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  35. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
  36. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
  37. Matheron, Julien & Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi, 2007. "Technology shocks and monetary policy : Revisiting the Fed's performance," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5491, Paris Dauphine University.
  38. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  39. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003.
  40. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  41. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Salemi, Michael K., 2006. "Econometric Policy Evaluation and Inverse Control," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1737-1764, October.
  44. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Franke Reiner, 2012. "Microfounded Animal Spirits in the New Macroeconomic Consensus," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-41, October.
  46. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Trend inflation and macroeconomic volatilities in the post-WWII U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, March.
  47. Matheron, J. & Poilly, C., 2006. "How Well Does a Small Structural Model with Sticky Prices and Wages Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," Working papers 148, Banque de France.
  48. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  49. Ida, Daisuke, 2013. "Optimal monetary policy rules in a two-country economy with a zero bound on nominal interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 223-242.
  50. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Can a real business cycle model pass the Watson test?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 185-203, June.
  51. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, Francois & Portier, Franck, 1997. "Time to implement and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-121, November.
  52. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
  53. Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "Bank behavior, incomplete interest rate pass-through, and the cost channel of monetary policy transmission," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1310-1327, November.
  54. Goffe William L., 1996. "SIMANN: A Global Optimization Algorithm using Simulated Annealing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-9, October.
  55. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: a Survey," Working Papers 121301, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  56. Benati, Luca, 2008. "Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes," Working Paper Series 0851, European Central Bank.
  57. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2012. "Estimating nonlinear DSGE models by the simulated method of moments: With an application to business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 914-938.
  58. De Grauwe, Paul, 2012. "Booms and busts in economic activity: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 484-501.
  59. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.