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Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area

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  • Fève,P.
  • Matheron,J.
  • Sahuc, J-G.

Abstract

The Euro area as a whole has experienced a marked downward trend in inflation over the past decades and, concomitantly, a protracted period of depressed activity. Can permanent and gradual shifts in monetary policy be held responsible for these dynamics? To answer this question, we embed serially correlated changes in the inflation target into a DSGE model with real and nominal frictions. The formal Bayesian estimation of the model suggests that gradual changes in the inflation target have played a major role in the Euro area business cycle. Following an inflation target shock, the real interest rate increases sharply and persistently, leading to a protracted decline in economic activity. Counter--factual exercises show that, had monetary policy implemented its new inflation objective at a faster rate, the Euro zone would have experienced more sustained growth than it actually did.

Suggested Citation

  • Fève,P. & Matheron,J. & Sahuc, J-G., 2009. "Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area," Working papers 243, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:243
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    Cited by:

    1. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2015. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in a New-Keynesian baseline model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 126-154.
    2. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2012. "Money and risk in a DSGE framework: A Bayesian application to the Eurozone," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 95-111.
    3. repec:cup:macdyn:v:22:y:2018:i:04:p:931-960_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Barthélemy, J. & Cléaud, G., 2011. "Global Imbalances and Imported Disinflation in the Euro Area," Working papers 329, Banque de France.
    5. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2017. "Money And Monetary Policy In The Eurozone: An Empirical Analysis During Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 677-707, April.
    6. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx & Aurélien Poissonnier, 2009. "Trends and Cycles: An Historical Review of the Euro Area," Sciences Po publications 258, Sciences Po.
    7. Martín Uribe, 2017. "The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan," NBER Working Papers 23977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hetzel, Robert L., 2017. "What Remains of Milton Friedman's Monetarism?," Working Paper 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    9. Hetzel, Robert L., 2016. "What Caused the Great Recession in the Eurozone?," Working Paper 16-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    10. Olaf Posch, 2018. "Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 6925, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2011. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in the new-Keynesian three-equations model," Economics Working Papers 2011-10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    12. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Julien Matheron & Patrick Fève, 2009. "Une estimation de la cible implicite d’inflation dans la zone euro," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(2), pages 39-56.
    13. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation target shocks ; Gradualism ; DSGE models ; Bayesian econometrics.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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