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Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy

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  • Melecky, Martin
  • Rodrıguez Palenzuela, Diego
  • Soderstrom, Ulf

Abstract

We quantify the effects of monetary policy transparency and credibility on macroeconomic volatility in an estimated model of the euro area economy. In our model, private agents are unable to distinguish between temporary shocks to the central bank’s monetary policy rule and persistent shifts in the inflation target, and therefore use optimal filtering techniques to construct estimates of the future monetary policy stance. We find that the macroeconomic benefits of credibly announcing the current level of the time-varying inflation target are reasonably small as long as private agents correctly understand the stochastic processes governing the inflation target and the temporary policy shock. If, on the other hand, private agents overestimate the volatility of the inflation target, the overall gains of announcing the target can be substantial. We also show that the central bank to some extent can help private agents in their learning process by responding more aggressively to deviations of inflation from the target.

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  • Melecky, Martin & Rodrıguez Palenzuela, Diego & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2008. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 10545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10545
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael U. Krause & Stéphane Moyen, 2016. "Public Debt and Changing Inflation Targets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 142-176, October.
    2. Patrick F»Ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Disinflation Shocks in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 289-323, March.
    3. Di Giorgio, Giorgio & Traficante, Guido, 2013. "The loss from uncertainty on policy targets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 175-182.
    4. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký, 2012. "Vliv makroekonomických šoků na dynamiku vládního dluhu: jak robustní je fiskální pozice České republiky? [The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on the Government Debt Dynamics: How Robust is the Fisca," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(6), pages 723-742.
    5. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(547), pages 1100-1124, September.
    6. Arbex, Marcelo & Caetano, Sidney & Correa, Wilson, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of inflation target uncertainty shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 111-115.
    7. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2012. "Imperfect Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1012, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    8. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    9. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2014. "Why is Inflation Targeting Successful?: Analysis of Inflation Target Transparency," EcoMod2014 6725, EcoMod.
    10. Neri, Stefano & Ropele, Tiziano, 2019. "Disinflationary shocks and inflation target uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 77-80.
    11. Stefano Marzioni & Guido Traficante, 2020. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Uncertain Inflation Target," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 601-621, October.
    12. Marzioni, Stefano & Traficante, Guido, 2023. "Learning with uncertain inflation target," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 624-634.
    13. Valdivia, Daney & Loayza, Lilian, 2010. "Adopción de metas de inflación y su impacto en las expectativas de inflación y volatilidad del crecimiento económico: evidencia empírica para Bolivia [Inflation targeting and its impact on the infl," MPRA Paper 37328, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2011.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12493 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credibility; Transparency; Inflation targeting; Imperfect information; Private sector learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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