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Vliv makroekonomických šoků na dynamiku vládního dluhu: jak robustní je fiskální pozice České republiky?
[The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on the Government Debt Dynamics: How Robust is the Fiscal Stance of the Czech Republic?]

  • Melecky, Ales
  • Melecky, Martin

This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the government debt dynamics in an open economy using the analytical framework of Favero and Giavazzi (2007) extended to an open economy. Applying this modeling approach to the data for the Czech Republic, the authors derive some implications for fiscal policy. The modeling framework includes structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, estimated using short-term identification restrictions, and non-linear specification of the government debt dynamics. The main variables of the analyzed system are GDP, inflation, the effective interest rate on government debt, government revenues and expenditures, the exchange rate and government debt. The estimation is carried out using the Bayesian approach. The results suggest that allowing for a non-linear dynamics in the government debt to GDP ratio could imply stronger persistence and higher volatility in the responses of government indebtedness to macroeconomic shocks. The fiscal stance of the Czech Republic seems to be most vulnerable to unexpected depreciation of the local currency, discretionary pro-cyclical increases in government expenditures, and deflationary shocks.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39761.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39761
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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2012. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space," Working Papers 2012/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Martin Melecký & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2009. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 10, pages 371-411 Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. repec:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:34:p:4439-4454 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," NIPE Working Papers 22/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  9. Missale, Alessandro, 1999. "Public Debt Management," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290858, December.
  10. Francesco Giavazzi & Alessandro Missale, 2004. "Public Debt Management in Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the effects of fiscal policy," Working Papers 317, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  12. Schuknecht, Ludger & Tanzi, Vito, 2005. "Reforming public expenditure in industrialised countries: are there trade-offs?," Working Paper Series 0435, European Central Bank.
  13. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  14. Vladimir Klyuev & Stephen Snudden, 2011. "Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 306-326, August.
  15. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
  16. Melecky, Ales & Skutova, Marketa, 2011. "Fiskální pravidla v zemích Visegrádské čtyřky
    [Fiscal Rules in the Visegrad Countries]
    ," MPRA Paper 34028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Empirical Properties Of Closed- And Open-Economy Dsge Models Of The Euro Area," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 2-19, April.
  18. Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2011. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Fiscal Stance within the EU: A Panel Regression Analysis," MPRA Paper 33684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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